Elections are a little bit like Christmas, in that stakeholders in the financial services industries will be holding their breath to see what Santa – or a new Republican Congress or governor – will bring them.

Some hope that the Republican-controlled 114th Congress will reel in some of the regulatory burdens imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act. For instance, Rep. Jeb Hensarling of Texas, who is slated to chair the House Financial Services Committee, has spoken none too kindly about Dodd-Frank in the past.

“We’re hopeful that the new Congress takes a look at some Dodd-Frank provisions, particularly those dealing with community banks and those areas where I think many members didn’t really think Dodd-Frank was going to impact banks under a certain asset size,” said Jon Skarin, vice president, federal regulatory and legislative policy at the Massachusetts Bankers Association. “These are important issues for the banking industry, but Congress is going to be dealing with a lot more than that, and I think we have to be realistic.”

But where there’s smoke, there isn’t necessarily fire. Cornelius K. Hurley, a professor of banking law and director of Boston University’s Center for Finance, Law & Policy, was doubtful.

“It’s a little bit like Obamacare. They’d love to eliminate it tomorrow, but they wouldn’t know what to do with it if they did,” he said, though he added there could be some agreement concerning the very biggest banks that were actually supposed to be reined in by Dodd-Frank.

“When it comes to the unifying issue of ‘too big to fail,’ Dodd-Frank by most accounts has failed miserably, and you hear that from both sides of the aisle, so there could be some consensus around that issue, and I hope there is,” he said.

‘If It Ain’t Broke …’

Meanwhile, closer to home, Charlie Baker will take over the post of governor early next year.

Gloria Cordes Larson, now the president of Bentley University, served with Baker in the Weld-Cellucci administration, where she served as the state’s secretary of consumer affairs and business regulation and later as the secretary of economic affairs, and she praised Baker’s leadership style.

“He’s one of the brightest people I know, and at the same time, he seeks and consults others for their opinions. People are going to find him a wonderful, seasoned executive to work with. I know he’s going to seek absolutely the best talent possible for his administration,” Larson said.

Baker, who cultivated a bit of a wunderkind reputation during the administration of Gov. William Weld and then steered Harvard Pilgrim Health Care back to profitability, also at one point served on the board of directors of Tremont Credit Union, which some say might point to an interest in community financial institutions.

Amongst other things, Baker will inherit a fairly stable banking industry in the commonwealth of Massachusetts. While some other states practically hemorrhaged community banks during the Great Recession, Massachusetts lost just one in the fallout from the financial crisis. Too many bankers here recall the recession of the early ’90s, the narrative goes, and Bay State banks have accordingly managed their business with due care and diligence.

While Baker will certainly have the authority to appoint a new commissioner of banks, historically, the approach applied to the Massachusetts Division of Banks, and in particular the post of banking commissioner, could be summed up as, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

“I would say it’s an apolitical position,” Hurley said. “And the track record for that has been extremely good.”

He noted past Massachusetts banking commissioners, like Tom Curry and Steve Antonakes, who have gone on to serve as heads of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, respectively, and said that current Commissioner of Banks David Cotney has measured up well to the standards set by Curry and Antonakes.

“It all points to offering David Cotney to stay in the post if he wishes,” he said.

And as Larson points out, Baker is likely to first figure out some other key posts before even thinking about the banking commissioner, in particular the secretary of consumer affairs, to whom the banking commissioner reports.

“[Baker] will move with all due deliberate speed,” Larson said. “It’s a bit like playing chess. There may be some other pieces on the chessboard that he needs to move first before he gets to this particular position; I’m sure he’ll consult all the right stakeholders.”

Baker’s efforts might be better spent looking at ways to work with the current banking commissioner to improve the state’s financial services climate, to include boosting new community financial institutions and financial tech companies, Hurley said.

“If Charlie Baker called me tomorrow and asked me what he should do, I would tell him to leave the current guy there, but ask two questions: What can we do to promote de novo banks in Massachusetts? And second, what can we do to promote the fin-tech sector?” he said. “And there, David Cotney would have a lot to add, I believe, because of his role with regard to cybercurrency. He’s an important player in the Bitcoin space and also in the cyber space.”

Email: lalix@thewarrengroup.com