If investors found 2009 lacking in community-bank investment chances, 2010 might bring the opportunity they were looking for.

Although Massachusetts has been a much-lauded shelter from bank carnage elsewhere in the country, more than a few local banks have gotten shape-up orders from regulators, with more likely to come.

Bankers and analysts commonly note regulators’ recent hardnosed attitude, and also predict a coming onslaught of mostly commercial loan defaults expected this year. This combination of factors means more banks are sure to have capital troubles, and are probably going to consider raising new capital through individuals or investment companies.

“This is an environment when lots of investor groups have raised money and still have lots of assets to invest, and there are absolutely lots of venture funds and private groups looking for acquisitions,” said William T. Kozak, head of Rockport-based consultancy WTK Assoc.

Vultures Circling

Whether those institutional investors find what they’re looking for is another question, says Kenneth F. Ehrlich, head of the banking and financial services department of Boston law firm Nutter, McClennen & Fish.

Investors were looking last year, and largely didn’t find any deals worth making, Ehrlich said. For one thing, too many Massachusetts banks are mutuals, making them difficult to invest in because they don’t sell stock. And many stock banks simply haven’t liked potential investors’ terms.

Still, according to Ehrlich, “in any really down market, vultures come out.”

Many banks will get official orders to raise their capital ratios, and stock at even relatively healthy institutions can be bought on the cheap in the current market. Smart investors can get in at bargain-basement rates before the institution goes on to a glorious and profitable future, Ehrlich said. Nobody wants to look back and realize they missed an opportunity.

Although Massachusetts hasn’t seen major announcements of investor groups stepping in to shore up a struggling bank, its neighbor to the south has. Connecticut’s Patriot National Bancorp got orders from the Comptroller of the Currency to shore up its capital and clean up its assets last February. By December, Patriot had sold 88 percent of its company stock to financier Michael Carrazza, who operates New York firm Solaia Capital Advisors.

Similarly, capital-squeezed Darien Rowayton Bank took $10 million in investments from Alcar, a company formed specifically by executives at two out-of-state mortgage companies to invest in a community bank. John Bowes, president of Darien Rowayton, said the bank’s advisor, New Jersey-based Finpro, matched the bank with the investors after the institution began looking for a solution to its capital troubles. Finpro maintains an office in Newton.

Outside Influence

But the presence of new major investors can lead to noticeable shifts in a bank’s strategy, as those investors seek a hefty return, Ehrlich said. And if they’ve invested in a struggling bank, the investor is likely to suggest that previous strategies weren’t working all that well to begin with.

“These people aren’t just parking their money somewhere to get a 5 percent return,” said Stephen J. Coukos, partner with Boston-based Chu, Ring & Hazel.

Coukos said he expects to see both more capital-raising activities and mergers and acquisitions throughout the next year or two.

But not all of this activity will come from banks in weak positions, he said. Some banks with strong capital ratios may want to take advantage of a more receptive capital market, which has been restrained in the past couple years.

There’s also the question of what happens with a mutual bank facing precariously narrow capital ratios. Because mutuals can’t simply sell more stock, they must often fix ratios by shrinking their assets altogether. In other cases, a mutual might decide to convert to a stock bank.

But such conversions are more likely to come from banks with strong capital that realize they can attract buyers at a time like this, Coukos said. One bank, Peoples Federal Savings Bank in Boston, announced in February that it would convert from mutual to stock. Instead of being in a weak position, FDIC data shows the bank had a healthy ratio of 10.68 percent for its core capital, and 16.30 percent for its Tier 1 risk-based capital, as of Dec. 31, 2009.

As for mutuals with less-healthy ratios, WTK’s Kozak said they probably wouldn’t be able to get many investors interested in troubled assets. In cases like that, it’s more likely the mutual would try to get itself acquired.

While Massachusetts hasn’t yet had a single bank failure, some banks may not be far enough away from the precipice, he said.

“There haven’t been any [failures] yet, but that’s not to say that there won’t be.”