A new report suggests a growth in lower-end hotels in Boston could drive down a key regional profitability metric next year.

New research from CBRE suggests RevPAR in Boston will increase by 0.3 percent for the rest of 2019 and decrease 1.3 percent in 2020. However, it could then increase 0.3 percent in 2021, according to CBRE Hotels Research’s September 2019 Hotel Horizons report.

CBRE is projecting a 3.8 percent supply increase and 2.1 percent demand increase in Boston for 2019. In 2020 supply is expected to increase 6.2 percent and demand is expected to increase 4.7 percent. Average daily rates are also projected to climb in Boston; rates are projected to grow 1.9 percent in 2019 and 0.2 percent in 2020. Occupancy is expected to decline by 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

“Boston’s supply and demand continue to grow in both the lower- and upper-priced services through 2021,” Mark VanStekelenburg, managing director of CBRE Hotels, said in a statement. “Specifically, in the CBD, lower-priced supply is seeing significant growth. Of the approximate 2,500 rooms under construction, roughly 500 are considered lower-priced, or 20 percent. The CBD itself is currently only 10 percent lower-priced. The significant growth in lower-priced supply in the CBD submarket partly contributes to the slower ADR growth rates projected for the greater market.”