Boston’s condo market has held up well against the value erosion that has plagued the rest of the city’s real estate, but some signs show the market may be beginning to crack.

The median sales price for condos citywide fell from $399,000 in January 2008 to $268,700 in January 2009, a $130,300 slip, according to The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

Despite evidence to the contrary, Realtors are confident the recent data doesn’t reflect a sustained slide for Boston condo values in 2009.

Most heartening for Realtors is that open houses were well attended in February, signaling that buyers are at least interested in finding out what’s available.

“We’ve been seeing a lot of traffic at our open houses,” said Michael DiMella, managing partner at Charlesgate Realty Group in Boston. “It’s not that people are just pulling the trigger; the buying cycle is a lot longer right now.”

That elongated cycle is due to a lack of new inventory on the market, and a crisis in consumer confidence. That confidence was at an all-time low in November and December, which is when the condo sales reflected in January’s numbers were put under agreement, DiMella said.

“People were very scared at that point,” DiMella said.

Wait And See

DiMella said buyers are now waiting for the right property to come online. They didn’t find those condos in January or February, and there are great opportunities for sellers with well-priced properties in the coming months.

“People are more realistic,” DiMella said. “We are in a recession. Everyone has to work harder this year, no matter what business you’re in.”

Richard Drinkwater, senior vice president of Otis and Ahearn, said the lack of inventory that is crimping sales volume will likely reverse the slide in prices.

Sales volume has decreased year-over-year, with 175 sales in January 2009 compared to 249 in January 2008, according to Warren Group data.

Drinkwater said there are four and a half months of inventory in the downtown market right now: there were 741 listings in downtown Boston as of March 5.

“There is no new construction going into the ground,” Drinkwater said. “That’s going to create upward pressure on pricing in downtown Boston.”

As of late, there has only been downward pressure in downtown Boston. Not including October, when the luxury Mandarin Oriental Hotel came online, prices have been sliding steadily since September. In January, the median sales price for downtown condos was $430,000, the lowest in three years, according to The Warren Group.

No Problem

That doesn’t concern Drinkwater, however. He said there is no confidence crisis for people looking to buy condos at $500,000, and those below $500,000 are only worried about qualifying for loans.

But with first-time homebuyer tax credits and increased jumbo loan limits dancing in their heads, buyers have new incentives to jump into Boston’s condo pool.

“We’ve got a lot going on to help the market,” Drinkwater said. “There is money out there for people who have reasonable debt-to-income ratios, good credit scores. The way it should be.

“A little positive news economically, and those people you see at the open houses are going to become buyers, and you’ll see [the market] reset like 2001.”