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New data from real estate data firm Black Knight shows that Boston-area residents are still raring to jump into the housing market, despite huge shortages in housing inventory and record-high prices.
As the average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan dropped from 6.73 percent for the week ending March 9, according to Freddie Mac, to end the month at 6.32 percent, data Black Knight released in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report shows mortgage rate locks rose 45.4 percent month-over month in the five-county Greater Boston area and southeastern New Hampshire.
A large increase in rate locks – the result of a prospective homebuyer signing receiving preapproval from their mortgage lender – in any March is normal as buyers prepare to enter the spring housing market. March 2020 saw 68 percent month-over-month growth in Boston just before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, Black Knight said, and March 2019 saw 67 percent month-over-month growth.
But it’s noteworthy that this year’s increase is so similar to last year’s despite mortgage rates that are still higher than at any time since 2008, and comparable to rates that sent buyers fleeing the market during last fall’s rapid ramp-up. March 2022 saw a month-over-month increase in rate locks of 41 percent.
“This continues to be an incredibly rate-sensitive housing market, and March’s rate lock activity perfectly illustrates this dynamic,” Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at Black Knight, said in a statement accompanying the latest data release. “Early in the month, when rates started their climb back toward 7% – reaching 6.8% in the process – we saw pronounced downward pressure on originations. In the wake of uncertainty in the banking sector and investors’ flight to the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries, rates came down roughly a quarter of a point. The result? Another quick surge in originations, particularly in the purchase market.”
Black Knight reported that the average loan amount preapproved in March in Greater Boston and southeastern New Hampshire was $543,684, with an average interest rate of 6.31 percent. The average borrower credit score was 742.24 and the average loan-to-value ratio was 27.93. Eighty-nine percent of rate locks were for purchase loans and 11 percent were for refinance loans.
Black Knight’s data comports with observations from local market-watchers, who said last month that demand in many parts of Massachusetts appeared to be rebounding significantly from the fall’s lows as buyers realized rates were no longer soaring rapidly upwards with little end in sight. But it’s possible buyers and sellers may still find a market that’s more balanced than in prior years.
According to data from MLS PIN, the combined number of single-family and condominium listings in the Greater Boston Association of Realtors’ and North Shore Realtors’ territory – corresponding to MetroWest plus most communities within the urban core and the Route 128 corridor – was down 20 percent.
However, Black Knight found the total volume of rate locks in Greater Boston and southeastern New Hampshire was 54 percent below the volume seen in March 2022, and 30 percent below that seen in March 2019.
