The average rent in Greater Boston may be declining, but for the typical couple looking to rent a two-bedroom in the city, rents remain among the highest in the country – and they’re still rising. There are signs, however, that they may have reached a plateau.
After five straight months of decline, the average residential monthly rent in Boston in December 2016 was $2,291, up slightly from December 2015, when the average rent was $2,265, according to Axiometrics, a rental property data provider.
So rents dipped in the second half of 2016, but still finished the year up from the year before. Are rents going up? Or down?
According to rental agents who are in the trenches every day, Boston’s rental story is more nuanced than that. Trends vary by neighborhood, type of building and price range so much that general, citywide statistics leave a lot of the story untold.
High End Softening Skews Averages
Van French, a rental agent with Gibson Sotheby’s who lives and works primarily in the South End, said most of his clients are looking to rent a two-bedroom unit for around $3000 a month.
“Generally speaking, the high end of the market – $4,000-plus per month – has softened, but the mid-range is still very strong,” French said. “That said, landlords will still get a premium for a quality home on a quality street.”
To complicate the picture, large building owners are offering a couple of months of free rent, gift cards and other incentives to attract renters, said P.T. Vineburgh, founding partner of Charlesgate Realty.
“I do see a definite softening in the high-end market and that’s driving the overall statistics,” Vineburgh said. “Even some of that data is a little misleading because
the advertised rent may be high, but when you factor in all the concessions, it’s actually a lot lower. I think there’s a lot of that going on.”
When big, new buildings that have amenities like pools, gym memberships, in-unit laundry, dog grooming, parking and concierge services offering additional incentives like free rent for the first one or two months, it puts pressure on owners of smaller buildings to lower rents to compete, he said.
“Where I’m seeing the biggest hit is in the brownstone market,” Vineburgh said. “It’s a trickle down from the big buildings with all the amenities. Brownstone owners have to lower their rent to compete and justify the lack of amenities.”
French said instead of asking potential renters for the first and last month’s rent plus another month’s rent as a deposit, some landlords are waiving some traditional fees to lower renters’ upfront costs.
“Overall it’s more of a renter’s market, depending on what kind of a renter you are,” Vineburgh said. “At the high end you have a lot more options than you did two did years ago. It’s nice for those renters to see the pendulum swing back to be a little more renter-friendly.”
The middle of the market, where rents range from roughly $2,400 to $3,700 per month, is robust in Back Bay, South End and South Boston, French said, though there’s an unusual amount of inventory given that very few leases expire in January.
Similarly, Vineburgh, who defined the mid-range market as roughly between $2,700 and $3,200 per month, also called that market “robust.” The landlords he represents are not raising rents when leases come up for renewal, as they did in each of the last four or five years.
“I think that market will continue to be strong now that mortgage interest rates have picked up,” Vineburgh said. “That will drive the lower end.”
So what comes next? Are rents close to peaking? “Yes, they have to be,” Vineburgh said. “As high as prices are, they can’t get much higher. There has to be a ceiling. You will see some of this inventory be made into condos.”
French agreed. He said many of the landlords he represents also did not raise the rent on their units, or raised them a small percentage when their leases last came up for renewal.
“I can’t see the rents continuing to rise like they have,” French said. “I think we’re approaching a point where it’s going to cap out soon. Each neighborhood is different, so some rents may have a little more room to go up, but I don’t see how it can continue for the next two years.”






