The mortgage refinancing business has dwindled as interest rates rise. Now, the mortgage industry is looking to the resurgence of home equity loans as a financing instrument, primarily because of the appreciation in home value in many markets across the country.

When wages and home values are both rising, home equity financing serves as a vehicle to keep more liquidity in the economy, with the expectation that future income will be sufficient to retire the loan. That worked well for a great number of years, and it can again, particularly with some good recent indicators, such as declining delinquencies for home equity products and rising home appreciation in most local areas across the country, driven by increased demand.

Paul Imura, chief marketing officer at mortgage technology firm ISGN, cites $5 trillion of untapped home equity in the country as of the second quarter of 2013. He says 2.5 million borrowers returned to positive equity as of second quarter and are no longer underwater. Also, those who refinance to reduce their monthly payments have given themselves the equivalent of a raise. As for home equity loans, proceeds that are used for carefully-chosen home improvements, such as kitchen and bath upgrades, are always a good investment to improve a home’s resale value. Not so true for cosmetic improvements whose value deteriorates over time, he cautions.

Drawing on his observations, we should be careful.

Today’s economy still holds little reward for savers, who may be pushed into riskier investments to achieve long-term financial goals. Unemployment may be going down but it does not reflect those who have stopped looking for work. And basic, essential expenses that used to be manageable, such as college and health care costs, have either gotten out of control or have the potential to do so, and if they do, that would cancel out the "raise."

Gary Larson, creator of The Far Side cartoons, created this image some years ago: A pack of dogs is in a lifeboat in the middle of the ocean with a big bag of dog food. The apparent leader says something to the effect of: “Who votes that we eat all the food now?” Any dog lover who’s ever had to leave their animal to its own devices can probably relate.

Imura commends the CFPB’s requirements for higher down payments that put more of borrowers’ skin in the game. It’s a higher cut up front, but it’s a better return for borrowers later in the life cycle, he indicates, and it’s better for their lenders and their neighbors, as well.

So just because some aspects of the economy are showing real improvement, let’s not eat all the food at once.

Don’t Come Back To The Party Too Soon

by Banker & Tradesman time to read: 2 min
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