Despite a strong economy, last year’s $1 billion budget surplus and revenue collections that are outperforming expectations so far this year, the potential for an economic slowdown and future recession loomed as the budget-writing process for next fiscal year kicked off on Wednesday.

At an annual state House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee hearing, economic experts offered their financial forecasts for the year ahead, estimating state revenue collections will grow somewhere between 2 percent and 3.4 percent in fiscal 2020. Legislative and administration budget writers will use the predictions to develop a consensus estimate of how much money will be available to spend on state programs and services.

Revenue Commissioner Christopher Harding told the committee the national economy is in the second-longest period of growth in its history, but said all expansions must end, and the question is “when the decline will start and how hard the fall will be.”

“Based on the analysis and inputs from our sources, we are not projecting a recession to begin during [fiscal year 2020],” Harding said. “We are however being realistic in our expectations for growth, and we will be monitoring both revenues and the economic environment carefully.”

Harding predicted an actual growth of 2 percent to 2.2 percent in fiscal 2020.