The triple disaster in Japan and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa likely would have only a limited impact on the global economy, according to Lexington-based forecasting company IHS Global Insight.

The company said this prediction holds true provided the twin shocks of higher oil prices and the supply chain disruptions from Japan do not get much worse.

IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh told a global webcast featuring presentations from nearly a dozen IHS experts that global growth for 2011 is forecast to come in between 3.5 percent and 4 percent, reflecting minimal economic effects from the "double shock" of the twin events.

"The bottom line is that in the most likely scenario – other than Japan and North Africa – growth in much of the world economy will not be derailed," he noted, adding that the faster growing regions of the world have the best chance of shrugging off the events. However, Behravesh and other IHS experts said that the near-term impact on some industries such as automotive, electronics and chemicals "could be quite painful."

Looking beyond the near-term supply chain problems brought about by the Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plants damage, the greater threat to global growth is from rising oil prices.