The latest home sales numbers are out, and they’re dismal. Sales in Massachusetts in August were down 18 percent over last year. They were down in July, too. Get used to it. It’s a pretty sure bet they’re going to be down every month right through the middle of next year.

Pending home sales have been down every month since the $8,000 federal tax credit expired in April. That means that the number of homes that close a couple of months later can’t be anything but down, too. So right now, the math doesn’t support any scenario where home sales at least through December can be up from last year. You can’t sell more houses than you’ve got contracts for.

We’re already comparing sales against the artificially-inflated numbers generated by the tax credit. Remember those big gains that were reported as the tax credit was initially set to expire last November? Then the big gains that we saw as it was extended into 2010? Pending sales already show this year’s numbers are going to dive. And there’s little evidence that next year’s first half is going to be that robust. So every report at least through June of 2011 is going to show housing sales dropping, compared to the same month in the year before.

We, like everyone else in the real estate community, would like to see better, more encouraging, numbers being reported. But this isn’t a question of hope, or wishful thinking, or doomsaying. It’s math, pure and simple.

An unemployment rate as high as we’re seeing in New England is not conducive to lots of buyers in the market. It’s one thing when we’re handing out $8,000 gifts. It’s quite another when people have to find their own money.

Real estate professionals should not have been surprised by the drop, nor the severity. And they shouldn’t be surprised when there’s a huge drop next month, too, or the month after that. Get used to it. These sales levels are the new reality. They’re not the bottom of the market. They are the market.