Dale Stinton, chief executive officer of the National Association of Realtors, gave the keynote speech at the Massachusetts Association of Realtors’ two-day conference and trade expo held last week in Boston.

Immigrants, consumers in their 20s and those who are 60 and older will be driving the housing market in the next decade, according to a real estate industry leader who addressed Bay State Realtors last week.

Young people who are interested in purchasing their first home and adults in their 60s who are seeking a lifestyle change will be “fertile markets” for real estate agents and brokers nationwide, according to Dale Stinton, chief executive officer of the National Association of Realtors.

In a keynote address at the Massachusetts Association of Realtors’ two-day conference and trade expo last week in Boston, Stinton said NAR anticipates that by 2015, half of all real estate transactions will involve immigrants.

“A big chunk of the buying and selling going on is due to immigrants and foreigners,” said Stinton, who gave his speech at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center.

The predictions come even as Massachusetts and other New England states are expected to lose a substantial portion of their young workforce in coming years. Massachusetts and Connecticut will have the largest drops in the percentage of young workers with at least a bachelor’s degree by 2020, according to a study released by the Nellie Mae Education Foundation last year.

The high cost of living in Massachusetts, including expensive home prices, has been a key reason that people are leaving the state, according to research presented by local economists.

“Even though we are in the midst of a market in which the inventory of unsold homes outnumbers buyers, we lack a sufficient supply of housing to meet the needs of the local population. This is particularly true in eastern Massachusetts in the entry-level market, where first-time buyers and low- to moderate-income households are unable to find adequate housing,” said MAR President David Wluka in a speech before introducing Stinton.

People are moving out of state in search of more affordable places to live, explained Wluka, who noted that Massachusetts was the only state in the nation to lose population in the last two years.

MAR, under Wluka’s leadership, has been working to address housing affordability and other quality-of-life issues. This year MAR sponsored a study that illustrated how the lack of entry-level affordable housing was a drag on the state’s economy.

‘Under Attack’
While market trends and affordability were addressed in the keynote speech, Stinton also touched on other issues affecting Realtors, including health insurance and efforts to limit the tax deductions that homeowners can take on interest paid on home mortgages.

NAR lobbied heavily against a tax reform proposal to replace the mortgage-interest deduction with a 15 percent tax credit that would be limited to interest paid on a primary residence and to eliminate deductions that homeowners can take for interest paid on second-home mortgages and home equity loans.

Stinton said that as federal leaders search for ways to balance the budget in the future, they may look toward slashing the mortgage interest deduction.

“We predict that in the next two to three years [the mortgage-interest deduction] will come under attack,” he said.

This past year, NAR also pushed for legislation that would enable self-employed workers and small-business employees, including Realtors, to join forces through an industry or professional group to negotiate lower health insurance rates.

Wluka and other Bay State Realtors met with congressional leaders in May to win support for the measure.

But the Senate rejected efforts to bring the proposed bill to a vote this past May. A chief opponent to the bill was Sen. Edward Kennedy, who wants universal health coverage. The bill failed to move forward by just four votes, said Stinton, who pointed out that senators voted along party lines.

“Now we’re in a wait-and-see mode,” Stinton said.

The health care issue has been a key concern for Bay State Realtors because Massachusetts lawmakers passed a first-in-the-nation law in April that requires all residents to have health insurance by July 1, 2007. Under the law, self-employed workers must verify on their state income-tax returns that they acquired insurance through a provider, and will face various penalties if they don’t.

While some local Realtors are insured through their spouse’s employer, others are “paying through the nose” for coverage or lack health insurance altogether, said Wluka. MAR leaders are trying to educate Bay State Realtors about the new law.

About 25 percent of Realtors statewide don’t have health insurance, and Stinton said 400,000 members of NAR are uninsured.

Stinton said NAR and other groups have “raised the debate on health insurance to such a level” that congressional leaders will have to work out a compromise on health insurance legislation soon.

NAR wants to engage consumers more on health insurance and other issues on which the trade group is focusing, according to Stinton.

Stinton explained that the nation’s leaders are more likely to take notice and action if consumers and the general public are concerned and vocal about the issues that NAR wants addressed.

“People on Capital Hill will pay more attention [to consumers’ letters than Realtors’ letters],” he said.

NAR, which has 1.35 million members, is spending $40 million on its public awareness campaign and has extended it from eight months to 12 months. As part of its campaign, NAR airs television and radio advertisements touting the importance of Realtors.