The Colby Chapel at Andover Newton Theological School, a 23-acre campus in the heart of Newton Centre.

Sharpen those pencils: A whole campus is about to come onto the market in the inner suburbs, right in the heart of the red-hot real estate market inside Route 128.

But the opportunity comes with a huge asterisk: the real estate in question, the campus of the Andover Newton Theological School, is in Newton Centre, a Main on Main address in a city that has earned a reputation for being as restrictive in its attitude towards new development – especially new housing – as it is liberal on social justice issues.

The bucolic 23-acre site – just a short walk from the Newton Centre stop on the Green Line – positively screams housing, especially at a time when prices are going through the roof inside the 128 beltway, nowhere more so than in Newton.

But the impending sale of the valuable land comes amid a bruising series of battles over housing in Newton that haven’t cast the city in a terribly favorable light when it comes to dealing with the Boston area’s ever more dire housing crisis.

Scott Van Voorhis

Scott Van Voorhis

“There is definitely potential for residential,” said one executive familiar with the site. “It’s a rare opportunity.”

Andover Newton has embarked on the first stages of selling its campus after announcing plans to relocate and scale down after years of declining enrollment. The seminary is in talks with Yale Divinity School that could see the seminary move to New Haven. The school has trained generation of ministers since the early 1800s, primarily for the United Church of Christ, Unitarian and Baptist denominations.

The site is reportedly worth $40 million, the local paper notes.

This description on the Andover Newton website spells out quite nicely – altogether innocently of course – why this is blockbuster development site:

“The tree-lined modern campus is a rare open space in a densely-developed Boston suburb and suggests a traditional New England college. It has sweeping views of Boston and the Blue Hills and is a short walk from Newton Centre village with many shops, restaurants, and an MBTA station with trains to downtown Boston and Cambridge.”

Prospective Bidders, Possible Uses

Now the question is, who will be teeing up to land this deal?

While Boston College seems likely, the seminary is not near its core holdings. Besides, BC recently gobbled up another similarly-sized tract from Congregation Mishkan Tefila in Chestnut Hill, with no immediate plans to do anything with it.

Possibly the most logical play would be by a senior housing developer, with a number of high-powered firms rolling out upscale housing/assisted living in some of the Boston area’s most expensive suburbs.

The Waterstone at Wellesley, right on the Wellesley/Newton line, built in the style of a luxury condo development, comes to mind. Or, for that matter, there’s LaSell Village, a 225-unit independent living complex on the grounds of the Newton college.

Certainly there is demand for senior housing. Yet, sad to day, that’s not necessarily the main attraction to the idea of creating another LaSell Village or Waterstone on the Andover Newton campus.

Rather, the prospect of hundreds of seniors living at the former Andover Newton site would side-step the likely opposition which would come from either market rate or affordable housing.

And that, in turn, is generated by the fear – seen so often in debates over new housing developments across the Boston area – that new condos or apartments would, heavens forbid, mean more children enrolling in Newton schools.

“The city would probably be more open if it were restricted type housing,” the executive said. Then “you are not dealing with the issue of schools kids.”

It is certainly not an unfounded fear.

On the plus side, Newton Mayor Setti Warren recently helped push through a plan to for a 68-unit residential and retail building on what is now a municipal parking lot on Austin Street. The city’s Board of Alderman voted in favor, despite the typical whining from neighbors that the project, which looks to be all of four stories, was some sort of mega monstrosity that would fit better in Manhattan.

That said, 68 units is a drop in the bucket when the cost of buying a house in Newton is approaching $1 million and rents are through the roof.

No Comment From Newton

Meanwhile, Newton officials have been cooking up ways behind the scenes to make the city exempt from the state’s 40B affordable housing law. That includes having succeeded in stymying plans by Cabot, Cabot & Forbes to transform an old office park by 128 into 334 new apartments, many of which would be subsidized.

And I haven’t even mentioned the grotesque neighborhood uproar a couple years back that forced Warren to scuttle plans to convert an old fire station in a grand total of seven units for homeless folks.

Let’s just say Newton has a long way to go before it redeems itself on the housing front. So what does this all mean for the Andover Newton campus?

When I reached out for comment, city officials were mum, not willing to even discuss the general zoning of the site, let alone what could or should be built there.

But Newton will have a strong say in what ultimately gets built, with any developer likely to have to change or tweak the zoning rules, effectively giving the city veto power.

Senior housing sounds like the safe bet given the likely gauntlet any developers will likely have to run at City Hall. But is that truly the best use for this dynamic site when ever increasing numbers of  young professionals and families face being priced out of the Boston area altogether?

Senior housing developers have their own challenges lining up sites to build on, but they pale in comparison to the strikes faced by apartment and condo builders.

I’m sure Mayor Warren and his minions will just love this piece. But actions speak louder than words. And with the future of the Andover Newton campus, I’m open to being convinced, but skeptical all the same.

Newton Campus Offers 23 Prime Acres

by Scott Van Voorhis time to read: 4 min
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