For the first time in recent memory, real estate experts looking into their crystal balls to predict what lies ahead are finding a cloudy picture. After three or four years of record sales, climbing median sales prices and low vacancy rates in the rental market, the Massachusetts real estate market is facing an uncertain 2001 dictated somewhat by the uncertain economy in general.

“The bloom is definitely off the rose,” said Karl Case of Case Shiller Weiss in Cambridge and professor of economics at Wellesley College. “The economy is not expanding, and the stock market is not up.”

However, just because the economy overall may be slowing down does not mean the real estate market will suffer the same effect, Case cautioned.

“It really depends on how much the economy drops,” he said. “The housing market doesn’t behave like the stock market or the fish market. People become very resistant to dropping their price on the house they’re selling … People who aren’t forced to sell will not sell their house if they can’t get the price they want for it.”

Case predicted the rate of increase in the value of Bay State homes will begin to slow down in 2001 and eventually flatten out, but he does not see values decreasing anytime soon. “Things should smooth out. Only if [the economy] gets really bad will the values go down, and even then there will be no sharp decline.”

Edwin J. Shanahan, chief executive officer of the Greater Boston Real Estate Board, also predicted that numbers for 2001 won’t be as strong as they were for 2000 or 1999. Still, he sees a healthy year in store for the market.

“There’s no short answer for what the New Year will be like,” Shanahan said. “The year 2000 was an extraordinary year, when you look at how strong the market was. Is the market as strong now as it was six months ago? No. But have we hit a soft landing yet? No.”

David M. Walsh of David Walsh Realtors in Weymouth and 2001 president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors said it will be important to keep an eye on certain economic indicators throughout the year, as changes in the economy eventually trickle down and affect the real estate market.

“The indicators out there are making you more watchful,” Walsh said. “What I’m seeing out there is that there’s not going to be a drop in the market, but an adjustment. We’ve had a few good years, but I’m seeing some things on the horizon.

“With Bradlees and Montgomery Ward announcing they’re closing, and with manufacturing down, thousands of people are going to be out looking for a job,” he added. Additionally, Rhode Island-based retailer Ann & Hope announced last week it was closing its four Massachusetts stores, and Sears, Roebuck & Co. also announced plans last week to close several of its specialty stores nationwide. “They may not all be in Massachusetts, but there are signs nationwide, and that says something,” Walsh said.

Still, Shanahan cautioned against using those indicators as a sign of doom for the real estate industry.

“Clearly they have an impact, but it’s important to realize the primary factor is still demand. In the rental housing market, for example, as long as there is still demand, the market will be strong.

“Even in the depression of the early ’90s, we still had a 9 percent vacancy rate,” he continued. “Other cities think they have a strong market when their vacancy rate is 7 or 8 percent. After a couple of years of 2 percent and 3 percent vacancy rates, we start to take a jaded view. If we get up to a vacancy rate of 6 percent or 7 percent, some people might think it’s a bad market, but it’s all relative.”

John Fridlington, who last week took over as executive vice president of MAR after working for several years at the California Association of Realtors, agreed that while 2001 will not be a record-breaking year in the market, it will be strong.

“We’ve had four consecutive years of record or near-record home sales, with 1999 being a peak year,” Fridlington said. “It’s a similar situation here as in California. I think 2001 will likely be down slightly, but I’m still seeing it in my crystal ball as one of the top five years for volume and sales.”

Fridlington said he expects the local economy to remain relatively strong, despite talk of a recession, which should keep the real estate market stable. Stable interest rates between 7 and 8 percent should also help, he said.

“One cautionary note raised in all of this is the recession, which will determine how soft a landing we will have,” he said. “We’ll also have to keep an eye on how [Federal Reserve Chairman] Alan Greenspan manages things in order to avoid the recession.”

Outside of reacting to the economy, Fridlington said his Realtor association has other plans for the new millennium, among them the continuing promotion of smart growth planning for the commonwealth’s communities. “We’re going to promote master planning by communities instead of the continued knee-jerk reaction to projects that are proposed for that community,” he said. Focusing on smart growth will help communities avoid poor planning, he said.

“Being a Californian, it’s similar to a situation when Orange County went through with a widening of its freeway. They’re now completing the expansion of the freeways, which was quite a feat … but Orange County planned it without talking to neighboring [Los Angeles] County, so now you have a 10- to 12-lane highway that drops down to four or six lanes at the border. What kind of an impact does that create? It’s same situation with sustainable growth: we have to look at the impact.

“It’s a real quality-of-life issue, and a lot of people should participate in this dialogue,” he said. MAR will also be working on a new strategic business plan in the coming year.

Over at the GBREB offices in Boston, Shanahan said there will be a continued emphasis on new technology. As an example, Shanahan said, as of last week the redesigned Web pages for each of GBREB’s divisions are online.

“There will be a lot of technology-related things going on, especially with [the Greater Boston Association of Realtors],” Shanahan said. “There will be a lot of technological advancements and enhancements. The Web sites are just the beginning.”

Fridlington added that technology continued to be important at the MAR offices in Waltham as well. “We want to help our members adapt to new technology, and we want to have more Web-based communications so we can reach more people quickly.”

“This coming year will be a good year,” Case said, “but it certainly won’t be a great year.”