A 164-page report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) identifies and ranks 50 threats, ranging from what it called “a regulatory tsunami,” which topped the list, to the threat that agents will be removed from the transaction altogether, which came in last.

In Massachusetts, agents’ concerns differ from those of their national brethren. The top reported concern – increased regulation – may in fact be a good thing, they said.

With more than 35 years of experience selling in the Greater Boston area, Chobee Hoy, owner of Chobee Hoy Assoc. in Brookline, said the forecasted increase in regulation at the federal level “doesn’t keep me up at night.”

“When you’ve been in it as long as I have, there’s always been changes,” Hoy said. “I think change is always worrisome, but somehow or other you adjust and adapt to it. I’m not too worried about regulations.”

One of Boston’s up-and-comers, William Raveis broker Eric Rollo, (named one of Realtor magazine’s “30 Under 30” this year) sold nearly $12 million worth of real estate in 2014. He said he’s not worried about increased regulation; in fact, he embraces it, though he acknowledges many in his field fear change.

“I’m actually encouraged by increased regulation because it should increase the quality of agents,” Rollo said. “It should make it a harder profession to get into. More regulations will force people to pay more attention to how they do what they do.”

The idea of a data juggernaut like Google getting into real estate and competing with the MLS was a top concern in the report as well. Rollo said he wasn’t concerned about Google in particular, but he thinks the tech influence in real estate is just beginning – and will get bigger over time.

“One disruptor would be someone like Compass Real Estate, who in the last 18 months has become number three in three different markets. The growth there is phenomenal,” he said. “The people who founded the company have backgrounds at Twitter and Goldman Sachs. They look at real estate in a whole different way. I think you’re going to see more tech companies getting involved in the process.”

Anthony Lamacchia of Lamacchia Realty absolutely is not concerned about real estate agents being supplanted by technology, saying “it will never happen.”

“Buyers and sellers can’t do this without brokers,” he said. “There’s way too much emotion involved. Brokers bring both parties down to earth and explain things. The majority of people are not going to go through with that without representation.”

Pay Me Now

The fear of shrinking real estate sales commissions scored high on the DANGER report, thanks in part to the proliferation of discount brokerages and “entry-only” listing services. Rollo said he’s not worried about it; a top producing agent should have no problem articulating their value to the consumer and justifying their commission, he said.

“There’s a difference when you use a discount brokerage,” Rollo said. “The consumer ends up doing a lot of legwork themselves. They don’t get the day-to-day guidance or the access to my network of individuals who I know and trust and can refer. They don’t get my consistent presence throughout the transaction.”

Lamacchia said downward pressure on real estate commissions and entry-only services are nothing new, and that they have less to do with house prices than the overall strength of the market.

“In 2005, people were talking about broker commissions going down,” he said. “When the market crashed, commissions went up. All the entry-only services were booming before the crash, then half of them went out of business. Now they’re gaining market share. It’s market-driven.”

Lamacchia said sellers who use an entry-only service are at a strong disadvantage when they compete against sellers who hire him to list their home, as his expertise in marketing a home and negotiating results in better deals for sellers. He said buyers routinely make lowball offers to sellers who use entry-only services because they know the seller doesn’t have to pay a listing agent a commission.

He points out that two well-known investors recently made heavy bets on the current real estate model.

“Look what Berkshire Hathaway did,” Lamacchia said. “They bought Presidential. Warren Buffett is now in a position of being a major player. Rupert Murdoch bought realtor.com. They’re invested heavily into the real estate sales world. What does that tell you?”

Concerns About Professionalism

The report confirmed that the age of the average Realtor is on the rise – in 2005, it was 51; in 2015, it is 56. Many Realtors are approaching retirement age and there aren’t enough younger agents to replace them. The report ranked this as a “moderate” threat.

“It’s interesting. Real estate can be a really good career. If young people don’t go into real estate it’s obviously a real problem,” Hoy said. “Where are they? I do see people in their 30s and 40s going into real estate, but not a lot of them. This may change the face of being a broker in very serious ways. Where are the younger people going to come from?”

Hoy said the Brookline market demands the attention of full-time agents and she’s disconcerted by the recent increase in the number of part-time agents, who often work other full-time jobs.

“I’m worried about that there are people in real estate who do it part-time and I don’t think that adds to the professionalism,” Hoy said. “There are some who are very smart and very good. But I don’t think selling real estate is a part-time job. I feel like I see more and more of that. I can’t tell you how frustrating it can be when they’re not available for appointments. If you’re representing a seller and they’re paying you a handsome commission, you should be available. It hurts us all. It gives us a bad reputation. When I first came into the business, the title of real estate agent was not well thought-of. I don’t hear that as much anymore, but still, I’m concerned.”

Lamacchia, on the other hand, who got into the real estate business over a decade ago in his early 20s, apparently has no worries whatsoever about the future of the industry.

“Business is about supply and demand,” he said. “If more agents retire in the next 10 years, the need will be created and younger people will get into the field. My company has a lot of young people in it.”

The DANGER report is based on multiple studies and interviews of dozens of stakeholders, as well as surveys of the 7,900 members of NAR. It assigned each threat a number between 1 and 100 based on the likelihood of the event occurring, the timing of the threat and the anticipated impact it would have. Threats that scored between 81 and 100 were deemed critical, 61-80 severe, 41-60 high, and so on. It can be viewed at www.dangerreport.com.

Email: jmorrison@thewarrengroup.com.