Boston and other East Coast cities can rewrite all the building codes they want as they scramble to meet the challenge of ominously rising sea levels. But what good are hardier, more flood resistant high-rises if no one wants to rent offices or buy condos in these buildings anymore?
As sea levels rise, the Hub and other coveted coastal communities will soon face an even more challenging marketing problem as once-desirable waterfront neighborhoods suddenly appear risky to companies and high-end condo buyers alike. Obviously, the pullback hasn’t happened yet, and it may take a few years to come to fruition.

But to ignore the possibility – actually, the likelihood – of a market backlash against waterfront developments would be simply foolhardy. Sooner or later, the questions will start to come, and city planners better be ready to deal with them directly, instead of bragging about flood resistant designs and redundant power systems.

Thinking Big Picture

To their credit, Boston development officials are definitely all over the technical challenges posed by rising sea levels – as well they should be. The latest research predicts cities like Boston could get hammered by rising sea levels, with the ocean rising faster along the East Coast than in other parts of the world.

That could mean trouble over the coming decades or even years. As the ocean rises, big storms will increasingly have the power to flood the city itself, with the Back Bay, the Financial District and surely the Seaport all vulnerable.

The Boston Redevelopment Authority is putting the finishing touches on a questionnaire that will be sent to developers with new projects, asking how they plan to deal with the challenges posed by global warming, including storm surges.
One of the questions asks developers whether they have considered moving mechanical and electrical systems up a few floors, a wise precaution if the ground floor and levels below are suddenly swamped with seawater. In fact, a few waterfront builders have already started to take such steps.

But when asked whether rising seas could make it more difficult to market and sell waterfront condos, a top city planner really had no answer except to politely dismiss the question. And that may work for now, with talk of rising seas still the domain of the chattering classes and those steeped in the fine points of real estate development.

But as both the mercury and the ocean steadily rises, the discussion is slowly moving beyond hard-to-follow academic debates to office water coolers and coffee shops. And by the time the first major flood hits downtown Boston, it may be too late to steer the discussion.

It’s great that new condo and office towers will have their mechanical and control systems safely up a few floors, but does that mean you will have to stash away a rubber raft in your closet in order to paddle away if a hurricane hits?
That’s hardly a reassuring image for condo buyers weighing whether to plunk down a few million on a unit in a waterfront high rise.

Trouble Ahead?

Maybe buyers are not thinking that way yet, but if present trends continue, the issue of rising sea level will soon be impossible to dodge for developers and city officials alike.

In fact, we may get an early sign of the marketability of waterfront condos in this new and uncertain age, when oceanfront – long considered a luxury – now seems unduly risky.

Veteran waterfront developer Joe Fallon is weighing plans for the first major high-end condo high-rise in the Seaport at his multi-billion-dollar Fan Pier project.
It comes at roughly the same time as thousands of proposed residential apartments in the works right now in the Seaport – but no condos.

It’s a bold move by Fallon. After the rocky real estate market of the past few years, building luxury condos seems a little retro at the moment. Or to put it another way, Fallon right now is alone in his plans, not just when it comes to the waterfront, but across downtown Boston.

Fallon clearly faces a range of market challenges – and rising seas levels may still seem a little out there for even your not-so-average condo buyer.

But if you are looking to spend a cool $5 million for a new penthouse overlooking Boston Harbor, it would make sense to thoroughly check out the neighborhood.
And that should include the unpredictable ocean in the front yard.
Believe me, the questions about rising sea levels will be coming soon enough from condo buyers. What will matter is how developers and city planners respond.