The graying of the Massachusetts population is a worrisome trend for demographers – but it may provide one of the few bright spots for the commonwealth’s beleaguered developers.

The Bay State’s population is set to grow by roughly 9 percent in the coming decade – but 135 percent of that household growth will come from residents more than 55 years old, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Barry Bluestone, an economist at Northeastern University.

So while those may look desperate for those looking to develop starter homes, they present an opportunity for developers focused on the other end of life – assisted living and other types of senior housing, which allow people to stay close to their hometowns and families even when they can no longer live independently.

A particular growth spot is in so-called “memory care” facilities – units designed for people in good physical health for their age, but whose cognitive abilities have been reduced by Alzheimer’s Disease or other ailments. Such patients may not yet need the intensive round-the-clock medical care of a traditional nursing home, but do need supervision and help with day-to-day tasks.

A Familiar Environment

But the emphasis on specialized memory care doesn’t just affect the type of staffing or services provided – it also extends to the design of the facilities itself.

“[Memory care facilities have] very definitely got some unique needs in terms of design,” said Thomas Grape, chairman and CEO of Wellesley-based Benchmark Senior Living. His firm has completed 44 assisted living developments that include dedicated memory care units, as well as eight developments solely devoted to memory care. “Research has shown what will allow folks to prosper – smaller neighborhoods of units, smaller [common] areas, so that people can stay in smaller groups, and we can accommodate higher levels of staffing.”

In contrast with the apartment-like layout of many assisted living facilities, memory care units are usually smaller – generally 60 units or less – and on a one floor layout, with hallways that ring the building and enclosed courtyards to prevent wandering residents from heading outside or encountering stairs.

The special needs of the residents also affect the design of common areas. For example, many assisted living facilities have restaurant-like dining areas with lots of small private tables and a menu of choices. In specialized memory communities, care meals are generally communal and held on large group tables.

“You really want to create a family type of environment where you’re sitting around a larger table, it feels more like home, they’re passing dishes to one another,” said Wendy Nowokunski, president of Burlington-based The Northbridge Cos., a developer specializing in senior housing, including four communities in Massachusetts. “Because that’s what’s familiar, and you’re trying to create a calm, familiar environment.”

Supply & Demand

“I think there’s a growing need for all types of senior housing,” said Grape. But memory care in particular may be less influenced by the ups and downs of the stock market, tied as it is to a senior’s medical needs. “If mom develops Alzheimer’s, you can’t wait for your stock portfolio to recover, you’ve got to deal with it.”

Occupancy rates at memory care units did take a dip from its 2006 peak during the nadir of the stock downturn, declining from 91.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006 to 88 percent in the second quarter or 2009, according to research from the National Investment Center for the Senior Housing and Care Industry, an analysis firm which tracks the industry. But in the months since, even as much of the economy has sputtered, occupancy rates have steadily recovered, rising to 89.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

That recovery rate has far surpassed that of the broader senior housing sector, and its done so even as developers have continued to add units throughout the downturn. The number of units constructed nationwide rose more than 20 percent over the past five years to roughly 43,000, with another 1,300 units under construction as of the first quarter of this year.

As people live longer, healthier lives, those levels should continue to increase, with almost 40 percent of people projected to need some level of cognitive care as lifespans stretch into the 80s and 90s.

“Today, I would never build an assisted living [facility] without a memory care component,” said Nowokunski.