That breakout spring market we’ve all been waiting for is finally here.

All signs are pointing to a significant bump in home sales this spring, which comes after years of dashed hopes and short-lived rebounds. Based on an unusually busy winter, we are on track to see a sizeable increase in sales across Massachusetts as the spring market unfolds over the next few months.

And many of the national housing market indicators are also pointing up as well.

So what’s behind this turn of events?

The healing powers of the capitalist business cycle, rather than any of the half-baked government attempts to directly intervene in the market, get credit here.

Market Corrections

OK, the Federal Reserve’s massive monetary stimulus efforts can’t be ignored. The Fed’s trillions stopped the global economy from completely crashing in 2008 and 2009, and have since kept the pump primed, setting the stage for the rebound.

That, in turn, has kept mortgage rates at rock bottom lows.

But if rates were the key, we would be in the midst of another property boom now.

Rather, what’s injected new life into recently moribund home sales is that prices seem to have hit bottom, just as the general economy has at last shifted into a full-scale recovery.

There are finally some real bargains to be had, and buyers finally have a little money – and more importantly, some confidence to spend it.

And it’s all happened despite some clumsy, and at times near-disastrous, government tinkering.

The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) designed for foreclosure prevention has been a complete disaster, accomplishing little accept giving too many troubled homeowners false hope and delaying the inevitable.

Amazingly, the real estate market appears to have finally adapted to a reality of an alternate, competing market of low-priced, and mostly dysfunctional, foreclosures. It’s hard to think of a new foreclosure stat or trend that would be particularly shocking or head turning at this point.

And let’s not forget the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, that disastrous gimmick to top all foolish government gimmicks. The tax credit sparked a temporary surge in sales and prices, only to send both over the cliff when the multibillion-dollar stimulus program ended in April 2010.

Hence the double dip in prices and the fears it helped spawn that the economy might slip back into a full-blown recession.

By The Numbers

But when it comes to encouraging signs for the spring market, pending sales lead the pack.

One doesn’t need a crystal ball here. Just look at all the homes that have been put under agreement over the past few months and you too can be a market sage, predicting a big jump in sales a few months down the line.

Pending single-family home sales in Massachusetts soared 44.2 percent this February compared to February 2011, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors recently reported. Condo pending sales were up more than 30 percent year-over-year.

February marked the tenth straight month that pending sales have risen on a year-over-year basis.

Even if banks get even more uptight than they already are and reject a bunch of these tentative sales, you are still looking at a pretty big bump when the rest of these deals close in April and May.

Nationally, building permits rose in February to their highest levels since October 2008, while housing starts are slowly but surely rebounding.

And what about prices? Who knows, they might slide a bit more in some markets, though you are not likely to see that in many upscale towns and neighborhoods near Boston.

But at this point, prices are becoming irrelevant other than as a lure for buyers.

Because if buyers come back – and it looks like they are doing just that this spring – everything else will fall into place.

Scott Van Voorhis can be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com