Here’s a little hint: If you are a developer with big plans for Boston, especially if they involve a casino, you had better be praying early and often for Mayor Thomas M. Menino’s swift recovery.
Menino may not be the most eloquent mayor the city has ever had – that honor goes to jailbird James Michael Curley – but he is definitely one of the most powerful. And when the increasingly ailing Menino hangs up his hat and walks out of his fifth-floor City Hall office, the curtain will finally come down on the remarkable era of pyramid building he oversaw.
If Menino indeed decides to walk away next year instead of running for a sixth term, it will be bad news for a number of big projects, but above all, for casino-hungry Suffolk Downs.
The racetrack, whose investors include long-time business community buddy Joe O’Donnell, needs the mayor’s political muscle if it hopes to gallop to the finish line.
Menino The Indispensable
So can Suffolk pull down the coveted Boston area casino license and build a mega casino in East Boston without Menino’s help?
Consider me as skeptical on that count.
As long as Menino is in charge at City Hall, there is no doubt that Suffolk will get all the city approvals it needs to bid for the Boston-area license, one of three across the state to be doled out by the newly minted Massachusetts Gaming Commission.
The Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA) years ago lost any semblance of independence and simply functions as an extension of the mayor’s authority.
And through the BRA, Menino has sweeping powers to push through – or for that matter stop – just about any project. Zoning rules, the torment of developers in suburbs and towns across the Bay State, are a joke in Boston.
If you think this is no big deal, then recall how Las Vegas tycoon Steve Wynn found his plans for a $1 billion casino in Foxborough shot down by a few stubborn, small-town selectmen.
Menino also has the political machine on the ground to line up the votes for the required referendum – which, in a favorable quirk of our state’s new casino law, lets Boston get away with a neighborhood vote in East Boston rather than a city-wide tally.
No Menino, No Casino
But let’s look at a different scenario. Say Menino hangs it up early, leaving office next fall just just as the vetting process, both by the city and the state gaming commission, kicks into high gear.
For starters, there is no guarantee Menino’s successor will be as pro-big-development as the mayor, who once pushed plans for 1,000-foot skyscraper dubbed Tommy’s Tower.
In fact, given the years of heavy-handed development policy under the Menino regime, who knows what might happen once the lid comes off?
Okay, but let’s say some mini-Menino wannabe takes the mayor’s spot, such as a previously spineless city councilor pledging to do all the right things to keep Boston moving forward.
Menino’s successor won’t be powerless, but it could take years, if ever, to build up the kind of clout and control the mayor now enjoys.
And if it’s some low-wattage city councilor that inherits the throne, all it may take is a few loudmouthed and determined casino opponents to knock Suffolk out of the casino race.
Other Projects At Stake As Well
Of course, a Suffolk Downs gambling palace is not the only mega-project that could face an uncertain future should Menino decide to make this his last term.
There are several big projects either waiting in the wings or in the approval process across Boston, from an expansion of the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center to new air-rights developments over the Massachusetts Turnpike.
There’s also Harvard University’s revived Allston plans to consider, not to mention one or more new condo towers downtown.
Menino has until spring to decide whether to throw his hat in the ring for one last hoorah. Given the attention and political leverage he enjoys while the rest of us are left guessing about his intentions, Menino will likely milk this for all its worth, as would any politician worth his or her salt.
But if Menino wants to shepherd through a Suffolk casino or other big projects that are on the table right now, he’ll likely have to run again.
And given his zest for the job and his likely desire to ensure the success of some big legacy projects like a Suffolk casino, here’s betting Menino will do just that.
Scott Van Voorhis can be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com.
