Massachusetts real estate prices continued their relentless rise to new heights in 2018, setting all-time statewide records for both single-family homes and condominiums, thanks largely to strong demand and a low supply of inventory.

But as property values headed north last year, there are signs that some buyers are increasingly heading further west in search of more affordable and bigger homes, sometimes well beyond Interstate 495, according to year-end data compiled by real estate data and market insights firm The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.

The net result: A slowdown in price increases in some submarkets in and around Route 128 – and some impressive value gains in central and even western Massachusetts, according to data.

“I’ve been seeing a little bit of a softening,” said Judy Moore, an agent at Barrett Sotheby’s International Realty in Lexington. “The amount of appreciation has slowed down in our  area. You just reach a point where buyers won’t pay more.”

Boston Market Strong, But for How Long?

Overall, the state as a whole appears to be doing fine, breaking new market records nearly every month last year. The year-end result was a surge to a record high in the median price of single-family homes to $385,000 in 2018, up from $365,000 in 2017. Condominium prices also grew to $365,000 last year, up from $341,000 in 2017.

Meanwhile, statewide single-family sales continue their downward trend for the second year in a row, with the number of sales falling to 59,837 in 2018, down from 61,195 in 2017 and 61,656 in 2016. Statewide condo sales also fell last year to 24,515 units, down from 24,848 in 2017.

The city of Boston and a handful of other cities and towns near Boston, such as Cambridge, continued to see a rise in property values in 2018.

But John Ford, owner of Ford Realty in Boston, wonders how long – and how high – the price increases can go without many buyers simply calling it quits and looking elsewhere en mass. The median price for single-family homes in Boston edged up slightly to $2.7 million last year, while condo price jumped to $884,000 last year from $847,200 in 2017.

“I’m starting to see a little more hesitation out there,” Ford said of buyers in Boston. “Prices are just so high. I sense a slowdown possibly coming.”

As an example of high price points, Ford said that as of the second week in February there were approximately 25 listings of units for sale on Beacon Hill, and not one of them was for under $1 million. The price per square foot is now running at about $1,200 – a once unheard-of sum.

The result, Ford said, is that many of his Boston buyers are increasingly looking to buy outside the city.

But they won’t find much relief there either, said Lexington’s Moore, the past president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. In Lexington median home prices were basically flat in 2018 after years of increases, as they were in other nearby, highly desirable towns like Concord.

Every year differs in terms of what type and number of homes are put up for sale in communities, sometimes distorting price numbers from one year to the next. But Moore said she believes there’s a cyclical trend going on – one in which some buyers, though not all, are saying “enough is enough.”

Homebuyers Head West

While there are some signs of possible softening in prices in Greater Boston, there are also indications of upward pressure on prices in central and western Massachusetts.

Sarah Gustafson, an agent with Janice Mitchell Real Estate in Holden, wants to make one thing clear: “We’re not Boston.”

But she is optimistic about Worcester County and central Massachusetts in general. Like other parts of the state, Worcester County saw a decline in single-family sales last year to 8,680, from 8,883 in 2017. But the median prices for single-family homes rose to $275,000 last year in Worcester County, up from $259,900 in 2017.

Gustafson said she saw multiple bids on some properties in the spring of 2018, though that tailed off by the fall. Northborough, Shrewsbury and Southborough are particularly solid markets, she noted.

Another strong market is the Webster Lake area, where homes last year sold for $1.04 million and $1.35 million, seven-figure prices that are considered a “big deal” in the area, Gustafson said. A colleague recently hosted an open house for a single-family home in Holden – and 13 people showed up.

“We’re just seeing more people priced out of Boston,” she said.

And they’re moving even further west than Holden.

Rick Healey, a broker at Foster-Healey Real Estate with offices in Gardner and Leominster, said even small rural towns like Athol are starting to see more buyers looking around for homes. Last year, the median sale price of single-family homes in Athol jumped to $170,000 from $142,450 in 2017.

Healey stressed that some of that increase is due to year-to-year fluctuations in the type and number of homes sold in a given period. But there’s no doubt that, overall, prices are appreciating in Athol.

“We’ve had a couple of $400,000 homes sold that we would have never seen in the past,” he said.

Slow and Steady in the Berkshires

In Berkshire County, the real estate market isn’t growing like gangbusters – but it is growing. Last year, single-family sales were up slightly, to 1,538 from 1,502, while prices also edged up to $199,700 from $195,000.

Paul Harsch, a broker at Harsch Assoc. in Williamstown, said North Adams and Williamstown, for instance, have become more attractive and affordable place for people to live and work, particularly in or near their quaint small downtowns. This trend, he said, is largely due to the presence of local colleges, like Williams College in Williamstown, and cultural institutions, like the Massachusetts Museum of Contemporary Art (Mass MOCA) in North Adams.

“We’re not going to set any records out here compared to other parts of the state,” said Harsch, referring to the Berkshire real estate market. “It’s not a real fast-growing, hard-charging area. But it is does have a nice, steady, slow rate of growth. It’s a nice area.”

As Prices Headed North, Some Buyers Headed West

by Jay Fitzgerald time to read: 4 min
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