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While homebuyers in Greater Boston are receiving some relief due to declining interest rates, more homes on the market and slower price appreciation, they won’t see a return to something that feels like “normal” any time soon.

An analysis by economists at brokerage Redfin concludes that even if long-term mortgage interest rates fall to around 5.5 percent, the ratio of the mortgage payment on a median-pried home to the median income in the Boston area won’t return to pre-pandemic levels any time within the next 10 years. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan sat at 6.56 percent last week, according to mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac.

That contrasts sharply with other markets in the nation.

“This year we’ve seen faster price growth in Midwest and East Coast markets, which makes them less likely to return to normal housing costs soon if we assume those growth rates will continue,” Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said in a statement. “Back in 2018, however, it was the West Coast leading price growth and now those markets are generally on a clearer path back to normalcy. The housing market is constantly evolving, and today’s trends may look very different by 2030.”

According to The Warren Group, the publisher of Banker & Tradesman, the year-to-date median single-family home price in Greater Boston – defined as communities including and within the Interstate 495 corridor – was $805,000, an increase of 4.3 percent from July of 2024.

While it might take a while for Boston to return to normal, Redfin economists do believe that some markets will return to normal by 2030.

San Francisco is the only major market where the median mortgage payment-to-income ratio has already returned to its pre-pandemic level. A San Francisco household earning the median income will actually spend a smaller percentage of their salary each month to buy the median-priced home today than they would have in 2018.

Sixteen of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas will return to normal home prices within five years if prices and household incomes continue to grow at their current pace and mortgage rates fall to 5.5 percent, Redfin economists say. If mortgage rates remain at the current 6.7 percent level, annual household income growth stays at 3.9 percent, and home prices grow at current rates, overall U.S. median mortgage payment-to-income ratio will return to normal by December 2034.

“The path back to normal housing costs doesn’t require a crash in home prices—stability may be enough,” Khan said. “Buyers shouldn’t expect affordability to snap back overnight, but the trend lines point to real progress within this decade. If mortgage rates decline modestly, and price and income growth hold steady, the market for homebuyers could feel much different by the late 2020s. We are cautiously optimistic normalcy may not be as far off as many might fear.”