It’s seemed like the one thing everyone in the housing and real estate worlds could agree on for the last year is that we just don’t have enough housing in Massachusetts, and Boston’s suburbs in particular were doing a crummy job of pulling their weight in that regard.
Barrels of digital ink were spilled analyzing why – it was illegal thanks to restrictive zoning with racist and classist origins – and a veritable brigade of planners, scholars, developers, advocates, politicians and state officials spent most of the last two years trying to fix the problem in Greater Boston’s suburbs. Some of those politicians even lost their jobs in the process.
Then just before the Christmas weekend, it finally came true: From Brookline to Quincy, all 12 towns and cities with MBTA subway, trolley and bus rapid transit service finally passed zoning that in theory will let developers get to work building more. Most of the remaining 160-plus communities in the T’s service area have until the end of the year to follow suit.
“This is a major first step taken by the urban core communities of Boston to allow zoning for more homes. Local advocacy was and will continue to be key. This is ultimately a pledge towards building more equitable, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable communities,” Jesse Kanson-Benanav, head of housing advocacy group Abundant Housing-MA, said in a statement celebrating the milestone.
Still, it’s easy to fear these welcome developments will prove to be too little, too late for rapid, transformational change to our rental and for-sale housing markets. In a world of “higher for longer” interest rates, and when construction labor costs aren’t likely to budge for a bunch of structural reasons, did Massachusetts miss its big chance to open the taps on its housing pipeline when construction loans were cheap?
When talking to reporter Cameron Sperance for a recent story in B&T, developer Jason Korb put it this way: “Now we’re sitting here, interest rates have gone up, market-rate development is stalled, [even though] we just passed this really great new zoning bill. It’s like, we can’t get out of our own way. Long-term, I think the [MBTA Communities] bill is going to be very positive. I just think short-term, I don’t know how much of anything we’re going to see in the next year or two.”
It remains to be seen just how fast land prices will be driven down by this influx of new potential development sites given the strong demand for new housing – and whether the zoning OK’d under the MBTA Communities law so far is actually commercially viable. And we shall see whether lower interest rates and a much-hoped-for soft landing for the local economy will make it financially feasible for developers to build again.
In this context, it’s more vital than ever that state legislators pass Gov. Maura Healey’s housing bond bill quickly to make its huge infusion of cheap cash – including several innovative financing proposals – available to developers as soon as possible.
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