Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged at their April 27 confab and remained cautious about raising rates next month as mixed global economic signals and low inflation weighed on the minds of policymakers. The committee suggested that the U.S. economy is performing reasonably well but can’t seem to achieve a higher gear.

“Labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed,” the policy statement said. It noted household spending has diminished even though real income has risen and consumer sentiment remains high.

“Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has improved further, but business fixed investment and net exports have been soft,” the Federal Open Market Committee said. The committee reiterated that “a range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market.”

GDPNow, the Atlanta Fed’s measure of economic growth, forecasts GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016 at 2.2 percent, up from 1.7 percent at the beginning of the month. This compares with a 0.5 percent advance in the first quarter of this year.

At this time, markets place the chance of a June rate increase at 9 percent, down from 15 percent after the Fed’s statement was released on April 27. The markets expect at most a one quarter-point rate increase by year’s end. Fed officials will release a new set of economic and interest-rate projections following their June 15 meeting.

Several regional Federal Reserve presidents, nevertheless, said recently that they’re open to a hike in June. “My attitude about June is that it’s a live meeting, in which we will have plenty of new data compared to March,” St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard told reporters. “Our options are open at this point.”

Dallas’s Robert Kaplan said he’d be looking for continued progress on the Fed’s dual mandate for price stability and full employment to support hiking next month. “I just want to see continued progress,” he said in a radio interview. “What I don’t want to see is deterioration in either of those measures. That would give me pause.” New York Fed President William Dudley added that it’s reasonable to expect two moves this year.

 

Rates Low, Sales Up

To the surprise of many, government bond yields remain low. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded recently at 1.75 percent, virtually unchanged over the past three months. Further in on the curve, the five-year note currently yields 1.19 percent. In its latest housing forecast, Fannie Mae said mortgage rates will remain below 4 percent for the next two years.

The trend of unwavering price gains in most metro areas continued during the first quarter of the year, according to the latest report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The median existing single-family home price increased in 87 percent of markets in the first quarter.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home prices chugged along at a robust pace in most metro areas during the first three months of 2016. “The solid run of sustained job creation and attractive mortgage rates below 4 percent spurred steady demand for home purchases in many local markets,” he said in a statement.

The national median existing single-family home price in the first quarter was up 6.3 percent from the first quarter of 2015. ”Current homeowners in many metro areas – especially those who purchased a home immediately after the downturn – have enjoyed a sizeable boost in housing equity and household wealth in recent years,” added Yun.

The steady increase in housing prices has provided a boost to both home equity lending and cash-out refinances. The number of new home equity lines of credit (HELOC) originated from January to October 2015 was up 11.8 percent year over year, and at the highest level since 2008, according to Equifax. The FDIC said HELOC balances rose 3 percent at community banks in the 12 months ending Dec. 31, 2015.

In Freddie Mac’s 2015 Fourth Quarter Refinance Report, the GSE said the total of cash out dollars as a percent of the aggregate balance was 10.2 percent. This is the highest level since 2008 and compares with only three percent as recently as the first quarter of 2013. Consumers tapped a total of $12 billion of equity during the fourth quarter, or double the amount compared with the trough.

With the five-year Treasury note yielding less than 1.25 percent, many financial institutions believe that investment alternatives appear unattractive. Competition, meanwhile, has driven commercial real estate lending rates to rock bottom levels, which may not provide adequate compensation for the credit risk and capital requirements. In an attempt to support asset growth, lenders may wish to seek out homeowners with newly found equity in their homes.

Robert B. Segal is president of Atlantic Capital Strategies Inc., an investment advisor located in Bedford. He can be reached at bob@atlanticcapitalstrategies.com.

Economy Performing Well, But Not Enough To Raise Rates

by Robert Segal time to read: 3 min
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