Despite a notable uptick in mortgage rate locks in May, inventory didn’t grow appreciably in June – suggesting only buyers, not sellers are getting used to higher mortgage rates.

Two recently released reports raised hopes that the real estate market in Massachusetts might be reheating a bit after months of slower-than-normal activity. 

The first report via Black Knight, a mortgage data company, noted a major 37.7 percent spike in the number of buyers obtaining mortgage-rate locks in the Boston area in May, compared to April, suggesting to some that local buyers might finally be getting used to higher interest rates. 

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index in June showed that consumer confidence might be improving, with a slight increase in the number of people saying it was a good time to buy a home and a slight decrease in the number of people saying it was a bad time to buy. 

“Confidence in the housing market appears to have plateaued at a relatively low level, suggesting that many consumers may be coming to terms with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices,” said Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan in a statement. 

The combined hope from the two reports: If buyers were becoming a little more confident about the market, might potential sellers also become more confident, after largely sitting on the sidelines for much of the year due to higher interest rates? 

But a review of the latest data from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors shows that, so far, there’s no statistical reason to think the market picked up momentum in late spring or early summer, both on the buyer and seller sides. 

Listings in the Doldrums 

According GBAR data for June, new single-family listings were down by 39 percent in June, compared to a year ago, and total single-family active inventory was off by about 28 percent for the same time period. 

New condominium listings were down 31 percent year-over-year, while the active condo inventory was off 16.7 percent. 

GBAR’s territory covers the Boston metropolitan region’s urban core, plus its western suburbs and MetroWest exurbs. 

Looking at supply data for the counties that correspond to the Boston MSA definition used by Black Knight and other similar firms – Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth and Suffolk counties – the situation is even more stark.  

For the five counties, new single-family listings were down 37 percent in June compared to a year ago, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, while the total inventory was off 44.2 percent on the same basis. For condos, new listings were down 27.6 percent year-over-year, while active inventory was down 33.7 percent. 

The bottom line: There’s little statistical evidence of a market coming unstuck in eastern Massachusetts, with sellers still firmly sitting on the sidelines. 

Buyers, Not Sellers Coming Out 

So, what about that 37.7 percent increase in mortgage-rate locks in the Boston area in June? The national increase in locks was 14 percent in May, putting Boston far above most other metro areas in terms of locks, according to Black Knight. 

In a statement, the company said some of the national increase was tied to the month of May having two extra business days compared to April. But that doesn’t explain Boston’s big spike in locks well above the national average in May.  

May’s numbers also contrast with June data, which shows mortgage-rate locks down nationwide by about 1 percent. Boston’s locks were up only 0.7 percent in June, according to Black Knight. 

Chris Shedd, a loan officer at Continental Funding in Stoughton, said he can’t say for sure why there might have been a big jump in mortgage-rate locks in May, the vast majority of them purchase mortgages. 

It appears to be a “fluke,” or perhaps tied to young parents locking in mortgage rates in the hopes of buying a home in their preferred school district before the start of the summer, Shedd said. 

Though he’s seen an upward bump in his own mortgage business in recent weeks, Shedd said it’s too early to tell if the market is starting to noticeably shift. He remains skeptical it will.  

“Personally, I don’t think the market will really heat up till interest rates come down or more houses come on the market,” he said. 

Leading Edge Real Estate’s Alison Socha, who is the 2023 president of GBAR, said she does sense a subtle shift among buyers and sellers, some of whom seem to be accepting that 3 percent mortgage rates are coming back anytime soon. 

“We’re starting to see people making peace with higher interest rates,” she said. “If interest rates start to fall, the market could become more attractive for [both sellers and buyers].” 

‘Not Enough Houses to Buy’ 

But she noted that the statistics, at least for now, don’t confirm her sense that major change is in air. 

She said the Black Knight lock data for May is a “welcome positive,” but “probably not a big deal.”  

David McCarthy, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors and operating partner at Keller Williams Boston|Metro, said he doesn’t know why there was a bump in rate locks in May. But he suspects many people were getting nervous that more Federal Reserve rate hikes were around the corner – and wanted to lock in rates. 

“That’s a normal thing that happens when people think there’s going to be an increase in interest rates,” he said.  

He also said that high rents in the Boston area are driving more people to at least explore buying a home, even with today’s higher interest rates. Freddie Mac reported the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan sat at 6.78 percent last week after nearly breaking the 7 percent mark the week before.  

McCarthy said he hasn’t seen an actual increase in buyers looking for homes, but demand remains consistently strong. 

“It’s a very healthy number of buyers out there,” he said. “The problem is supply. There’s not enough houses to buy.”