Lincoln’s Hartwell Tavern, in Minuteman National Historic Park. The median single-family sale price in that town fell 15 percent year-on-year in 2023. iStock photo

Some of Boston’s western suburbs and other parts of Massachusetts appear to be resisting last year’s national trend of rising luxury-home prices.

According to 2023 residential sales data from The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, the median price for all single-family homes across the state rose last year by a relatively modest rate, at least compared to previous years, of 4 percent, to $570,000, amid a 22 percent plunge in home sales.

Statewide condominium prices showed similar sale and price trends, with overall condo sales down 19 percent and median condo pricing rising 4 percent to $510,000.

Besides another year of decreasing home sales and modest price increases, there were a number of interesting sub-trends in 2023, such as the median single-family home prices in Franklin and Hampden counties in western Massachusetts outperforming the rest of the state, rising 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

Single-family prices on the Cape were also comparatively strong, with Barnstable County’s median sale price rising by 6 percent and ending the year at $665,000, according to Warren Group data for 2023.

But a look at town-by-town trends shows not all communities experienced price growth in 2023.

Median Price Slides in MetroWest

In particular, some affluent towns west of Boston saw negative sale price trends in 2023.

In Sudbury, the median single-family home sale price fell by 3 percent, to $1.13 million in 2023. In nearby Weston, the median single-family price declined by 5 percent, to $2.1 million.

In Lincoln, the median price was off by 15 percent, to $1.4 million.

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Along Route 128, Needham’s single-family median sale price was down by 3 percent in 2023, falling to $1.37 million.

Meanwhile, other affluent west-of-Boston towns, such as Wellesley and Sherborn, saw only modest price gains of 1 percent each in 2023, according to The Warren Group’s data.

Not all affluent towns west of Boston saw negative movement. Located just east of Sudbury, Wayland’s median single-family some price jumped by 9 percent, to $1.06 million, while Concord experienced 4 percent price growth to $1.5 million in 2023.

The mixed performance in the western suburbs tend to support the findings of a new Redfin study, which found that prices of luxury homes across the country rose a hefty 8.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, or twice the pace of non-luxury home prices in the U.S.

But in the Boston area, Redfin found that luxury-home prices rose by only 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, well below both statewide and national trends.

The Redfin study defines luxury-homes as “those estimated to be in the top 5 percent of their respective metro area based on market value, and non-luxury homes as those estimated to be in the 35th-65th percentile based on market value.”

Houses on Nantucket Harbor. The median single-family sale price on Nantucket rose by only 1 percent, to $2.5 million, in 2023. iStock photo

Highest-End Homes Held Back

In the case of Boston, Redfin pegs the area’s median luxury price at about $2.2 million, though the definition of “luxury” may vary from town to town, and from real estate agent to real estate agent, in Massachusetts.

Lou Stephan, the broker-owner of Berkshire Hathaway Homes Services-Stephan Real Estate in Sudbury, said sales of single-family homes priced at $1.5 million and up are not selling well among young couples eyeing to buy in Sudbury due to its well-regarded school system.

Such higher-end prices – especially when combined with today’s higher interest rates – are simply not affordable for most people, Stephan said.

“There’s just not many of those types of buyers out there,” he said.

But he noted single-family homes priced at less than $1 million are “flying off the shelves.”

A few weekends ago, more than 100 people visited an open house for a 2,200-square-foot Cape-style home with an asking price of $850,000. After the showing, multiple offers ranged from the “high 800s to the low 900s,” said Stephan.

Amy Mizner, senior vice president at Gibson Sotheby’s International Realty in Weston, agreed that home prices in some suburban towns have “definitely declined from their peaks” after a frenzy of sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, when well-off urban renters flocked to the suburbs.

But she emphasized there’s been no overall collapse in prices, just small declines that appear to be stabilizing.

“Everything is leveling off,” she said. “When you say prices are flat, the flat is still very high.”

She also emphasized that the historically low inventory of homes for sale – and the subsequent plunges in actual sales – are skewing data downward in many markets. Many owners of higher-end homes continue to hold onto their properties, refusing to sell at a time when it’s hard for them to find alternative homes to buy.

Optimism for Improving Economy

Suburban towns west of Boston were not the only ones seeing flat, or even declining, home prices last year in Massachusetts.

On Martha’s Vineyard, the median single-family sale price fell by 2 percent in 2023, to $1.3 million. The median single-family sale price on Nantucket rose by only 1 percent, to $2.5 million, in 2023, according to Warren Group data.

But Tom Wallace, owner of Wallace & Company Sotheby’s International Realty in Edgartown, said it’s wrong to compare island vacation-home sales to primary-home sales in bedroom communities.

One major sale of a resort island home in the millions of dollars, sometimes in the tens of millions of dollars, can dramatically alter median home-price data in a town, he said.

“The resort markets fall into a different category compared to the real world, where people buy homes for their kids and their schools,” he said.

Do real estate observers see current trends changing in 2024?

The Redfin study noted that new luxury homes listed for sale in the fourth quarter were up 19 percent across the country, compared to the same period in 2022. In the Boston area, luxury homes listed for sale were up 9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to the same period in 2022, according to the Redfin study.

What does it mean? That perhaps higher-end homeowners think it’s finally time to get off the sidelines and sell.

Meanwhile, Sudbury’s Stephan said he thinks an improving economy, along with possibly lower interest rates, could push buyers to pursue more expensive homes.

Gibson Sotheby’s Mizner said the market is clearly in a “transitional period” that could lead to slightly higher inventory and more sales of all types of homes, including luxury homes.

“I think things will change,” she said. “We’re currently in a transitional market.”