The regional economy continued its plodding recovery during October and into November but persistent uncertainty fogs a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming months, the Federal Reserve Bank said in its latest Beige Book update Wednesday.

“Manufacturers reported increased revenues from a year ago, including some strong gains. Retailers and staffing firms continued recovering toward pre-pandemic levels, while the hospitality and tourism sectors remained hard-hit. Uncertainty about the course of the pandemic, vaccines, and possible relief measures added caution to positive outlooks,” the central bank wrote in its summary for the region that covers all of New England except Fairfield County, Connecticut.

The bank’s Beige Book offered a bevy of insights into the pandemic-wracked regional economy:

  • Staffing firms say business is up, but “limited or lack of access to daycare and school, worries about contracting COVID-19, mandatory 14-day quarantines, and potential further shutdowns” are contributing to a shortage of workers;
  • Average nightly hotel prices in Boston are down 45 percent compared to 2019 while occupancy hovers under 30 percent, compared to a 2019 average occupancy rate over 80 percent;
  • “After limited in-person shopping in the second quarter, one retailer’s same-store sales were off just 5 percent – exceeding expectations – across August, September, and October compared to the same period in 2019, with home décor and furnishings doing best,” the Fed said;
  • Most manufacturers reported increased sales, including a ventilator manufacturer that told the Fed it has had $400 million in orders this year, compared to $20 million in a normal year. A veterinarian supply company said sales are up because so many people have newly become pet owners during the pandemic;
  • Commercial real estate contracts the Fed spoke with “estimated daytime office occupancy rates at around 20 percent – bad news for the shops and restaurants that relied on office workers’ business.” The Fed said its sources expect a rough first quarter of 2021 for offices but are optimistic about the second half of the year.

Nationally, the Beige Book noted that three Midwest regions and the Philadelphia region reported activity had begun to cool in early November as COVID-19 cases surged.

Four districts reported “little or no growth” during November, while five others reported that activity remained well below pre-pandemic levels in some sectors.

The report said that most districts found that local businesses’ optimism has “waned,” with many citing concerns about the wave of virus cases and renewed lockdown restrictions. The report also said there was concern about the looming expiration dates for government support programs, including extended unemployment benefits and the moratoriums that have been in place on evictions and foreclosures.

The report, known as the beige book, will be used by Fed officials when they hold their last meeting of the year on Dec. 15-16 to discuss possible changes to the central bank’s interest-rate policies.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Latest Fed Beige Book Reflects Uneven, Plodding New England Economy

by State House News Service time to read: 2 min
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