Massachusetts November home sales data suggests buyers and sellers pulled back from the market, expecting lower mortgage rates next year.
The statewide median single-family sale price hit $600,000 in Massachusetts in November even as lower buyer demand kept year-on-year increases low.
A total of 3,545 single-family homes changed hands last month according to The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, a 2.7 percent bump year-over-year. The median sale price went up 3.4 percent over November 2023.
The Warren Group reported a 2.4 percent increase in the median statewide condominium sale price in November, too: up 2.4 percent to $511,955. All told, 1,449 condos changed hands, a 2.6 percent decline year-over-year.
Those modest price increases occurred even as the numbers of homes for sale took a significant dip. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors said 5,476 single-families and 2,820 condos were on the market in November, 11.6 percent and 9.6 percent drop-offs compared to the same month last year.
“Buyer demand slowed over the past two months however as the impending presidential election, approaching holiday season, and modest rise in mortgage rates since October caused many to become more cautious and put off their homebuying decision until next year,” 2024 Greater Boston Association of Realtors President Jared Wilk said in a statement.
Forward-looking data suggests that sellers may have a similar mindset. MAR said only 2,668 single-family homes and 1,135 condos went on the market in November, 12.5 percent and 11.6 percent declines year-on-year, respectively.
Market-watchers have predicted that, if the Federal Reserve continues lowering its benchmark short-term interest rate over the winter, Massachusetts could be in for a less heated home sales market in 2025.
“Inventory levels are healthier this fall than they were this time a year ago, offering buyers a larger selection of homes to choose from, but demand still exceeds supply at most price points and that’s helped to keep upward pressure on prices,” Wilk said.
But central bankers have started to signal caution towards anyone assuming their current rate-cut trajectory will continue automatically, amid new batches of statistics that show the American economy isn’t doing as poorly as had been feared in late summer and early fall.
“The recent data suggests that mortgage rates are likely to remain relatively high, perpetuating the issue of potential sellers with lower interest rates reluctant to enter the market, contributing to the state’s supply issue,” The Warren Group Associate Publisher Cassidy Norton said in a statement issued by the company. “Much like the single-family market, [condo] price growth is slowing significantly. This trend reflects the impact of elevated interest rates, which are tempering the pace of increases even as prices continue to edge upward.”