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A new survey from economists at listings portal Zillow adds more data behind the idea that 5 percent is the magic average mortgage interest rate for unlocking the housing market.

The researchers polled 1,815 American homeowners who hadn’t moved in at least 12 months about a range of topics during the first two weeks of June, and found that 38 percent of homeowners with a mortgage rate above 5 percent plan to sell within the next three years or have already put their home on the market, compared to only 21 percent with a mortgage below 5 percent.

That, along with other findings from the survey, suggest that a mortgage rate between 4 percent and 5 percent – or a downward trend in mortgage rates – will get sellers off the fence. The average rate on a 30-year, fixed, rate loan sat at 6.81 percent last week according to mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac.

Inventory shortages continue to plague the for-sale housing market, with little sign of relief.

The Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported that new listings decreased in June by 33.2 percent for single-family homes and 28.7 percent for condominiums, both compared to June 2022. The overall number of single-family homes for sale was down 41.3 percent month-over-month to a mere 4,563 – nearly 10,000 less than the number for sale in June 2019 – while the total number of condos for sale fell 34.7 percent to 2,384, compared to 4,726 for sale in June 2019.

That tight supply of homes for sale means that there’s still enough competition for houses that prices have been stable despite high home prices and mortgage rates having kicked many buyers out of the market. The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, reported the median single-family sale price increased 1 percent in June on a year-over-year basis to $612,250, a new record for single-family homes. The median condominium sale price increased 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis to $545,000, up from $535,000 in June 2022, marking a new all-time high for the statewide median condo price.

Still, Zillow researchers were not optimistic their findings point the way to an unsticking of the housing market any time soon.

“We expect mortgage rates may notch down slightly as inflation comes under control, but they are unlikely to return to 5 percent in the near future,” Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, said in a statement. “That means many homeowners will move only for major life events, like a new baby or retirement. Over time, homeowners will likely accept higher rates as the new normal, but until then, the market could remain challenging for home shoppers, who will see fewer options and higher prices.”

Still, the survey found that the share of all homeowners who were thinking of listing in the next three years, or whose homes were currently on the market, was up significantly – 23 percent compared to 15 percent last June.