With apologies to Bill and Ted, strange things are afoot in the Massachusetts housing market.
The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, last week released October’s housing numbers and revealed a most unusual occurrence – more than two-thirds of homes sold so far this year occurred in second half of the year.
Despite the double-digit increases reported year-over-year each month, through May, the 2015 market statewide was down 1.7 percent compared to 2014. From June through October, there have been 30,350 single-family sales, an 18.3 percent increase over the 25,652 in 2014 in the same period. More than two-thirds of all single-family home sales this year occurred in that five-month stretch.
That percentage of home sales so late in the year has never happened in the nearly 30 years The Warren Group has been analyzing home sales. In every other year since 1987, when The Warren Group adopted its current method of compiling data, sales recorded June through October have accounted for between 46 and 53 percent of the year-to-date sales.
The trend holds true for condos as well. There were 1,942 condo sales in October 2015, a 7.7 percent increase from the 1,804 in October 2014. In the June to October stretch there were 11,993 condos sold, 65 percent of this year’s total of 18,569. Similarly, that percentage has never been above 52 percent in any year since 1987.
Moreover, it’s not entirely the usual suspects leading the way. In October of this year compared to last, six counties saw double-digit growth in single-family sales – Bristol led the charge with a massive 59 percent increase in the number sales, followed by Essex (29 percent), Plymouth (23 percent), Norfolk (23 percent), Hampden (21 percent) and Worcester (20 percent). Combined, those counties had 3,276 sales in October, a 27 percent year-over-year increase.
Houses and condos are rapidly changing hands all over the state, but the median price is holding firm. Year-to-date statewide, the median price is up just 1.8 percent; month-over-month, it’s up a little over 2 percent. Condos are a little more dynamic; the median is up 1.6 percent year-to-date and up 6 percent over October 2014.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2015, it was widely anticipated that the implementation of TRID on Oct. 3 would throw the November and December numbers askew – but reports from lenders and agents have been largely positive in the aftermath.
Put it all together and it’s one of the strangest years for home sales in this century, let alone recently. Some of the late sales are no doubt attributable to the terrible weather earlier this year – much of the state didn’t fully dig out until March, and some homeowners (and would-be sellers) are still repairing the damage caused by 94 inches of snow in four weeks. But the second-worst winter on record – 1996 – did not result in a similar scenario.
It’s unlikely this is the new normal, but 2015 will certainly go down in the annals of Massachusetts’ residential real estate market as a most unusual year.
