Slow economic growth in the third quarter last year pushed up consumer delinquencies just slightly, although they remained near historic lows, the American Bankers Association (ABA) said today.

“The third quarter of last year was a slow quarter. GDP was low, job growth was probably the worst three months of the year, and all of that adds up to putting a little bit extra bind on people trying to meet their obligations,” said James Chessen, the ABA’s chief economist.

Delinquencies ticked up in six of 11 individual loan categories, according to the ABA’s latest consumer credit delinquency bulletin.

The composite ratio, which tracks delinquencies in eight closed-end installment loan categories, ticked up five basis points to 1.41 percent of all accounts in the third quarter. The composite ratio had fallen 17 basis points in the prior quarter, the ABA said.

Home-related delinquencies fell in two of three categories in the third quarter, continuing their overall downward trend. Home equity line delinquencies fell 3 basis points to 1.31 percent of all accounts and property improvement delinquencies fell 4 basis points to 0.87 percent of all accounts. Following a drop of 22 basis points in the second quarter, home equity loan delinquencies rose one basis point to 2.91 percent of all accounts in the third quarter.

Chessen stressed that even despite the small uptick, consumer credit delinquencies hovered just above historic lows. The ABA’s composite ratio in last year’s third quarter was 10 basis points below the year-ago composite ratio and well below the 15-year average of 2.25 percent.

“The good news is that consumers continue to be very diligent in managing their level of debt. There’s been a consistent deleveraging, there’s been more focus on repaying debts faster and it all shows up in these historically low delinquency rates,” he said.

Chessen also said he expects the Fed’s gradual movement on interest rates to have no impact on consumer delinquency rates.

“If someone was teetering on missing a payment, it was probably for all kinds of other reasons than a small uptick from the Fed,” he said. “But one of the things the Fed’s increase does signal is that there’s more to come. For borrowers, there is the sense that now is the best time to borrow because rates will never be lower and it provides an opportunity to get in and borrow at very good rates today.”

He expressed optimism and said he expects consumer delinquency rates to remain near all-time lows for some time to come.

“There are always going to be some people that are delinquent on their debts. It’s just the nature of things,” he said. “But we are right down at the floor and I expect we’ll stay here for some time. It really depends on consumers’ vigilance and how they manage debt.”

ABA: Consumer Delinquencies Tick Up In Q3 But Remain Near Historic Lows

by Laura Alix time to read: 2 min
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