Much has been made in recent months of the so-called “shadow inventory,” a huge pool of bank-owned properties yet to reach market, whose re-emergence in the coming year could help pin down prices and keep the housing market crying uncle.
But a new look at recent numbers reveals that some of those shadows may not be as deep as once thought.
Banks are taking back fewer properties at foreclosure auctions in Massachusetts, and they’ve sold a substantial number of properties they have taken back over the last few months, according to an analysis of data provided by The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman.
Banker & Tradesman examined the overall percentage of foreclosed properties bought by banks statewide in 2008 and 2009 and the sale of bank-owned, or REO properties, in the last six months. The period examined encompassed the second and third quarters of 2009, from April through September, as properties foreclosed on in the fourth quarter may have only recently been made ready for resale.
Almost 90 percent of the properties foreclosed on in January 2008 – 708 out of 802 – were purchased at auction by the lender. By December 2009, even as foreclosures were continuing at a high pace, banks took back only 578 of 858 foreclosed properties, or 67 percent – a more than 25 percent drop in the bank take-back rate.
Some of the purchasers of foreclosed properties include real estate trusts and condo associations, which can also initiate foreclosures.
But even when banks took back the properties, they had success in moving those REOs off their books. More than 70 percent of the foreclosures that banks took back from April through September of last year, or 2,614 properties, were sold within the last six months.
That leaves 1,065 unsold REO properties as the so-called shadow inventory. That number becomes even less daunting when considering that last year, total listings per month ranged from a high of 42,355 in June to a low of 30,685 in December, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.
As the real estate industry sails into the spring season, that jagged outline on the horizon might be more of an ice cube than an iceberg.
“The banks that I’m working with have definitely increased in inventory, but they’re also fixing the houses so that they will appeal to owner occupants, making preferences for them in order to sustain neighborhoods,” said Linda Kody, president of Kody & Co. in North Andover, a real estate agency which often lists bank-owned property. That willingness to make improvements might account for their success in getting some of their REO properties off their books.
“Foreclosure prevention is the mantra right now,” she says, “but when they get to the foreclosure, [banks] are introducing [properties] to the market as soon as they have title.”
A Note Of Caution
The ability of banks to successfully sell REOs might at first glance seem a hopeful sign, but some market watchers are still cautious.
Sean Caron, a policy analyst at the Citizen’s Housing and Planning Association, said the numbers might reflect disparities in the various market segments, with some places being more stable, while other neighborhoods remain threatened by blight.
“I’m not surprised personally, because the foreclosure crisis seems to have spread to a lot more suburbs and a lot more single-family homes where the market’s still decent,” Caron said, meaning banks should have an easier time getting such properties off their books. “[But] you’re still talking about 1,000 properties which were still sitting on the market. That’s still a huge problem.”
Some remained concerned 2010 may bring more foreclosures than 2009.
“There are all these things which have stopped foreclosures from being completed, and I just have the feeling that right now that’s where the problem is,” said Burt Kliman, a real estate lawyer in Newton whose clientele includes many servicers and lenders.
He noted that in 2009, there were a high number of homeowners seeking loan modifications, and foreclosure proceedings weren’t started on many delinquent borrowers. Various legal decisions and moratoriums also presented obstacles to foreclosure for lenders.
As those factors fade in influence over the next year, Kliman anticipates an increase in the pool of foreclosures and in lenders’ willingness to approve short sales.
“There’s a lot out there that’s going to happen,” he said.
There are also more pressing factors set to hit the market this year.
“Once the first time homebuyer tax-credit goes away, the market’s going to take a big hit,” Caron predicted.
But even wary observers like Caron admitted, “One good sign among a lot of different bad signs is a good thing.”





