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Apartment rents will drop 6.7 percent nationwide from their 2019 peak because of economic turmoil related to COVID-19 and not recover until mid-2022, according to a CBRE Econometric Advisors analysis.

CBRE EA projects that vacancy rates will rise 2.7 percentage points to 6.3 percent by the third quarter amid a loss of 14 million jobs nationwide.

The report does not break down data on a regional basis, but its lead author said Greater Boston’s multifamily market has been more resilient than most metros in past downturns such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

“Most studies believe that Boston will do better than the U.S. average because of the economic structure. You have some very strong industries that should weather the storm such as high-tech, biotech and even finance,” said Jeanette Rice, CBRE’s head of multifamily research, Americas.

During the 2008-2009 recession, average Boston rents declined 5.8 percent, compared with the national average of 8 percent, Rice said.

Nationally, CBRE EA projects that rents will drop 6.7 percent from their third-quarter 2019 peak and bottom out at $1,603 per month during the fourth quarter of 2020. Vacancies are projected to rise 2.7 percent to 6.3 percent in the third quarter of 2020.

The report’s rent and vacancy projections don’t reflect additional downside for apartment properties’ income from non-payment of rent, including deferred payments.

Massachusetts legislators are debating eviction protection for renters who have been financially hurt from the health emergency, including a moratorium on non-emergency evictions and issuance of notices to quit.

Apartment Rents Could Decline for Two Years, Analysis Says

by Steve Adams time to read: 1 min