The coming year is poised to be a contentious, uncertain one, with politics likely to heat up, the housing market and housing construction likely to stay troubled and recession fears likely to swirl. iStock illustration

Writing a column about the big stories to watch for the year ahead is typically a fairly tame exercise, if for no other reason than there’s often not a lot to work with.

Not this year and not during these times, though.

The coming year could very well prove to be a pivotal one, both politically and economically.

Depending on what happens, we could be looking at a year that ranks up there with 1968, a year of intense political and social turmoil, or even 1861 or 1933.

It’s often hard to say whether it’s economics or politics that are driving events – they are often so closely intertwined. However, given the coming presidential election year is promising to be a memorably crazy one, what happens on the political end could very well drive everything else.

Without further ado, here are my bets for the big stories are likely to make 2024 a memorable year:

Trump Elected? In Prison? Both?

An ex-president facing 90-plus felony charges – and running for a second term – is unprecedented.

It is a bizarre situation, leading to all sorts of speculation and crazy hypothetical situations, such as Donald Trump winning even as he awaits sentencing after conviction for one of his many misdeeds.

Losing to Joe Biden and then getting sentenced to jail? Getting elected and governing from a jail cell? Who knows.

Watch Out for Constitutional Crisis

This second story depends on what happens in next year’s presidential election.

However, Trump has pledged to act and behave like a dictator if he manages to get elected again.

He has pledged to use the legal system to go after his political opponents and to set up mass detention camps for illegal immigrants.

Thankfully, our system is not built to work like that. That said, at the very least we are looking at legal clashes with other branches of government and likely mass protests as well.

Will the Soft Landing Become a Hard One?

So far it has been relatively smooth sailing when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s campaign to bring down inflation by hiking interest rates.

But as the money supply contracts and banks continue to tighten their lending standards, there is very well could be a delayed reaction we are just not fully seeing yet.

There is often a lag time and the full impact of all those rate hikes may already be taking a toll that will become more evident next year.

Already, State Street and Hasbro have announced big layoffs, and the word is construction companies are also starting to pare staff as well.

Also, if our already crazy politics takes an even nuttier turn in 2024, that is also likely to put a damper on the economy as well.

More Trouble for the Housing Market

Single-family house and condominium sales are about as stagnant as you can get right now. The big jump in interest rates has sucked most of the buyers out of the market.

Prices, though, have kept rising thanks to a shortage of homes, not just in Massachusetts, but across the country.

The status quo isn’t good, but we may be stuck with it for a while.

However, the Fed is now talking of rate cuts next year and if the economy starts to weaken, that could lead to lower rates and more affordable homes.

Then again, if people start losing their jobs, that could quickly kill any real estate market rally.

This is all taking place against a backdrop where housing starts have plunged in Boston and across the state, while apartment and condo projects large and small have been put on hold.

And this may get worse before it gets better, with the pipeline of new construction looking lean for 2024.

Scott Van Voorhis

State-Local Zoning Showdown

There is still a fair amount of foot-dragging and resistance on part of local officials to the MBTA Communities law, which requires rezoning for apartments and condos around transit hubs.

While there has been a fair amount of compliance on paper, there is growing evidence loophole-hunting by local officials.

Next year will also feature a much bigger crop of towns and cities that have to pass new zoning than the 12 communities with what the MBTA calls “rapid transit service” – subway, light rail and bus rapid transit – that had to hash out their plans this year. Over 100 of Boston’s typically NIMBY suburbs face a Dec. 31, 2024 deadline to put new zoning in place, or lose access to lots of state grant programs.

Gov. Maura Healey and Attorney General Andrea Campbell talked this year about getting tough with communities that don’t comply. We’ll see what the follow-through is, but it’s a good start.

Happy holidays and thanks for reading!

Scott Van Voorhis is Banker & Tradesman’s columnist; opinions expressed are his own. He may be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com.