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Mike Ross
Real estate development in Boston is only getting trickier. Interest rates are rising, constructions costs are still stubbornly high, and land acquisition remains expensive. This, combined with modest production increases over the last few years catalogued in The Boston Foundation’s Greater Boston Housing Report Cards, has made new development all the more difficult. As the region becomes saturated with new development, finding deals that make financial sense is increasingly challenging. As a result, Boston’s development pipeline is shifting southward, towards the inner city, away from the downtown core.
Imagine dividing Boston in half. Allston, Brighton, East Boston, Charlestown and the rest of the downtown neighborhoods are in the northern portion of the city. The remainder, including the very active northern Dorchester market, Jamaica Plain, Hyde Park and Mattapan are all within the southern half. A review of all development projects over the last several years reveals a stark contrast in housing production with the northern portion producing more than three times the number of projects to the south.
To activate the southern end, city planners have acted decisively. Take Mattapan for example. A neighborhood with at least 5 percent of the city’s population, and among the highest percentage of homeowners in the city. Yet, there are virtually no sit-down restaurants to be had, at least none with an alcohol license. Housing growth has been anemic in this part of the city, as well. But, this fall, the city released a new plan that calls for significant density, such as midrise development in Mattapan Square with a mix of housing, businesses and, yes, full-service restaurants. This will move the needle. There are now new projects coming online, and more in the pipeline.
Mattapan isn’t the only emerging neighborhood with new development. Just 10 years ago, The Boston Globe called Bowdoin-Geneva “a neighborhood known for trouble”. But now new development is in full production. As a land-use attorney I know this firsthand, having recently assisted one of my clients, a Boston resident and minority developer, in permitting a mixed-use building with 38 units of housing in a location that literally sits at the intersection of Bowdoin Street and Geneva Avenue. Meanwhile there are numerous nearby projects under construction or being permitted. This is recent success.
Plan Balances Displacement Worries
The Wu administration seems keenly aware of, and intent on defending against, the gentrification that follows when new housing appears in once-affordable neighborhoods. Here too, there are changes. A comparison of the pre-pandemic fall of 2019, versus the same period this year, demonstrates a shift. Yes, the economy in 2019 was more favorable toward housing development, and former mayor Marty Walsh had an unprecedented housing growth strategy previously unmatched by other mayors.
But this year we’ve seen on-site affordable units prioritized and increased for all new development. On-site affordable housing in 2019 was around 12 percent per project, even lower than what the regulations prescribe, which is 13 percent. In 2022, affordability averaged 17 percent per project. Not bad for unsubsidized commercial projects. This, combined with a rapid pace of new construction, will help to keep local residents from having to move once new development occurs.
And we will need plenty more housing opportunities if Boston is to continue to be competitive as a region. Unfortunately, Redfin recently listed Boston as one of the top five metropolitan areas where homebuyers are fleeing from in order to find more affordable housing opportunities. The number one destination? Portland, Maine. Despite this migration, Boston’s population continues to grow. This, according to The Boston Foundation report, is thanks to an influx of immigrants of color.
Neighborhoods in the southern half of Boston are not without their challenges. Units are less valuable, public transportation is scarcer and access to the city’s job centers is harder. Still, this is where growth must occur if Boston is to dig out of its pernicious housing deficit. If scaled appropriately, with proper planning like the density seen in the Boston Planning & Development Agency’s PLAN: Mattapan and a continued focus on affordability, it’s a goal that can be achieved.
Mike Ross is a partner at Boston law firm Prince Lobel and a former Boston city councilor.
