Gov. Charlie Baker gives his final State of the State address on Jan. 25, 2022. State House News Service Photo

There is no denying that Gov. Charlie Baker made progress on housing. 

But was it enough? 

Well, the verdict is still out on that one, but the indicators are not encouraging. 

The moderate Republican became an outspoken proponent of ramping up production of multifamily housing during his years in office, securing Housing Choice legislation that puts the onus on suburban communities to start making room for new rental projects near MBTA stations. 

And as the clock winds down on the governor’s second and final term, there are signs that new apartment construction is picking up statewide and in the Boston area as well. 

Builders had slammed on the breaks during an anxious spring dominated by reports of surging inflation a potential recession, with the number of multifamily building permits issued during the first five months of 2022 having fallen 6.4 percent, Census Bureau stats show. 

The drop-off was particularly acute during the months of April and May, when worries about gas prices, inflation, the economy, rising interest rates – you name it – all came to a head. 

After a double-digit decline in April in building permits issued for new apartments and condominiums, the bottom fell out in May, with a roughly 50 percent plunge to 711 units compared to May 2021. 

But as gas prices have come and economy held firm over the summer, those concerns appear to have eased. 

New apartment, condo and home construction statewide picked up again in June and July. In fact, it is looking now we might even see more than 20,000 new residential units built in Massachusetts for the first time in at least a decade. 

That’s a definite improvement over the 14,000 to 17,000 housing units that has been the pattern for several years now. 

Who Gets the Credit? 

It’s hard not to credit Baker for some of this, with the governor having increasingly been the lead cheerleader for housing production in the state in an arguably more vocal way than his predecessors. 

Then again, housing and rents, already too high, have surged over the past few years, so there was also more to talk about. 

A centerpiece of the Housing Choice law Baker championed for years and eventually pushed through the state legislature was the removal of a troublesome legal requirement. 

In particular, the legislation eliminated the need to win a two-thirds majority – whether on the local planning board or among Town Meeting voters – to pass or amend zoning rules that would allow more housing to be built. 

Enterprising legislators also slipped in a provision requiring cities and towns with T stations to create special zoning districts where new apartments and condos can be built. 

While there has been some strong push back from some suburbs, the new rules – the final version of which the Baker administration just recently released – have the potential over time to spur construction of tens if not hundreds of thousands of new apartments, condos and townhomes. 

But here’s the problem: While Baker’s efforts may be finally paying off with some significant increases in new residential construction, the state actually fell further behind on fixing its housing shortfall over the past decade. 

Scott Van Voorhis

That number now stands at 108,000 extra homes, condos and apartments needed just to meet current demand, having doubled in the 2010s under Baker and former Gov. Deval Patrick, according to data from “Up For Growth,” a report recently put out by real estate and development groups. 

So, while encouraging, it’s not clear that even boosting construction to more than 20,000 units a year will be enough to put roofs over existing buyers and renters, let alone account for future ones.  

For context, Massachusetts was adding roughly another 30,000 housing units a year back in the 1980s – at a time when the state had roughly a million fewer inhabitants. 

At the end of the day, solving the Bay State’s chronic housing woes is a numbers game. And for a state that prides itself on its smarts, we are really bad at it. 

Scott Van Voorhis is Banker & Tradesman’s columnist; opinions expressed are his own. He may be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com.