In honor of my kids returning to school, I graded the performance of the Hub’s major condo markets in the first seven months of the year.
Back Bay
As a market, Back Bay has pedigree and wealth, yet this year’s condo market performance is a bit disappointing. On occasion, Back Bay delivered, like the $2,744 a square foot sale it had at Carlton House, or the $11.95 sale in the Mandarin Oriental, but for the most part Back Bay seemingly relied too much on its reputation and focused too few efforts on improving (development). This explains why Back Bay closed 16 percent fewer condominiums than it did in the first seven months of 2013.* Additionally, in a banner year for appreciation, Back Bay had only a 1 percent increase in median sales price ($876,000 to $886,000). In 2014, though not as dominant as in years past, Back Bay was still by far the area’s leader for million-dollar and luxury condo sales. Grade: C
South Boston
In a year when Boston condominium transaction counts are down 4 percent, and some of the city’s best markets are down even more (Back Bay, -16 percent; South End, -17 percent and Charlestown, -25 percent), South Boston’s 2 percent increase in transactions stands out as a job well done. Why has South Boston been able to increase transactions when others haven’t? The answer is new construction. While reports show that in the first seven months of the year Back Bay had only one sale of a condo built in 2013 or after, South Boston had 80. These shiny, bright new condos have helped propel South Boston’s median sale price 13 percent over the first seven months of 2013, and 41 percent over the first seven months of 2005. Grade: A
Somerville
Somerville is a market that where transaction and sales growth seem effortless. But Somerville is getting help from Cambridge, where there was a severe inventory shortage (-29 percent transactions). The Somerville condominium market is also getting help from Assembly Square, new train stops, and Mayor Joe Curtatone. As a result of all the help, compared to the first seven months of 2013, Somerville’s condominium transactions increased by 8 percent and its median sales price was up 18 percent. Grade: A
Brookline
Brookline is a smart market, but apparently somewhat adverse to picking up a hammer. Condominium scarcity has had two impacts for Brookline condominium market in the first seven months of 2014: Transactions were down 29 percent and median pricing was up 24 percent. What’s in store for Brookline’s future? More scarcity: Poly Selko, the planning ombudsman for Brookline, told me that she knows of no approved plan to build 10 units or more in the town. Grade: B+
Dorchester
I’ve been writing about the lack of sub-$500K condos in the Hub for the last six months. For every sub-$500K condo that was listed for sale on Aug. 26, there were at least five on the market on that day in 2010. Who is benefiting from the Hub’s incredibly shrunken modestly-priced condo inventory? Dorchester. This year, there’s a resurgence in the Dorchester condo market, marked by a 40 percent increase in transactions versus the first seven months of 2013. Dorchester condos also had an 8 percent increase in price. Grade: A-
Cambridge
Cambridge is usually recognized as the highest-volume Hub condominium market, and has in the past sold more than 1,000 condos in a year. But this year Cambridge transaction counts are down nearly 30 percent from 2013. As it stands, it’s unlikely that Cambridge’s closed condo sales will top even 600 closed sales for 2014. Although the Cambridge median sales price is up 14 percent, before the lack of inventory provokes a turn for the worse, I’m going to suggest we have a teacher-parent conference with Cambridge, because unlike many of its residents, this market is underachieving. Grade: C-
South End
The South End condo market is flying a little bit under the radar. Transactions through the first seven months of the year are down 17 percent versus last year, and the median price is only up 7 percent. Nonetheless, it’s apparent that the South End condo market is poised to have a great 2015 when luxury sales at Sepia start to close. Grade: B
Midtown
Midtown is city-bred with moxie. Despite some stories about urban challenges in the area, the Midtown condo market has had a great year, mainly as a result of sales in Millennium Place being entered into the MLS. MLS transactions for Midtown in the first seven months are up 60 percent and the median pricing is up 51 percent. Grade: A
*Analysis of MLSPIN sale data by market (not ZIP code), Jan. 1 through June 31, 2014.
David Bates is a broker with William Raveis Real Estate and author of The Bates Real Estate Blog, www.BatesRealEstateReport.com, and a recently published e-book, “Context: Nine Key Condo Markets, 2.0.”





