Battered by a vicious recession and a real estate rebound that has been tilted against high-end homes, some of the Bay State’s toniest suburbs are starting to face steep price declines.

That is what I found, anyway, looking at the latest numbers from The Warren Group, publisher of this newspaper, examining sales and prices through September in towns and cities across the Greater Boston market.

Despite some promising signs over the past few months, prices in roughly 80 percent of the towns and cities within the 495 beltway were still down through September compared to 2008 levels, often significantly, the numbers show.

“There is not a lot of big-ticket purchases going on anywhere, whether it’s boats, houses or cars,” notes Michael Carucci, chief executive of Boston Real Estate Group. “People are in a holding pattern.”

The drop in prices come on the heels of a dramatic tightening up of jumbo lending by banks after last fall’s near collapse of the financial system.

Interest rates soared on jumbo loans, now defined in the Boston market as anything above $523,750. Banks also got a lot tougher on down payments, requiring anywhere from $200,000 to $250,000 on a $2 million mortgage.

Banks are also demanding more thorough appraisals – not to mention taking a more critical look at the income of would-be luxury home buyers.

A bank considering whether to grant a mortgage to the prospective buyer of a multimillion-dollar house in Wellesley will first want to see three different comparable sales within the past several months – a difficult standard in a down market.

And financial services execs whose bonuses might typically dwarf their income are now finding banks taking a skeptical view of such income, reducing the amount they are eligible to borrow.

“If you are buying a house in Wellesley for $3 million, we have to find at least three comps in a mile,” said Leif Thomsen, chief executive of Walpole-based Mortgage Master. “Sometimes it’s tough to prove, even though the value is clearly there.”

Deal Killers

In a break from the pattern that has seen the rich towns keep getting richer, Dover, Wellesley, Weston, Lexington, Lincoln and Newton have seen some of the biggest price declines so far this year.

The median sale price in Wellesley fell 14.4 percent during the first nine months of the year, compared to same period in 2008, to $906,250. Sales plunged 23.5 percent.

Weston saw median prices tumble nearly 12 percent, to $1.2 million, while sales were off also twice that, by 22.6 percent.

Lexington prices also fell 14.4 percent, to $618,250, with sales off more than 6 percent.

And Lincoln saw prices tumble almost 20 percent, from well over $1 million down to $825,000.

But signs are emerging in the past few weeks that the jumbo loan crunch may be starting to finally ease. In particular, rates have started to fall on jumbos, bringing them down to within a point of traditional loans.

But the reports, and in particular month-over-month increases in prices and sales, may be fueling a little too much optimism out there.

Tim Warren, chief executive of the Warren Group, argues it may be time to look more closely at market fundamentals. That means not getting too carried away with month-over-month gains, when the more telling comparison is the traditional year-over-year.

“I think people have gotten too excited about rather modest comparisons from June to July, as opposed to June to the previous June,” Warren said. “You need to see a sustained increase in sales volume before you really see the median price level off on a year-to-year basis.”

Sounds like some pretty sound advice in a market where overheated speculation too often rules.