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A new analysis of MLS data by economists at brokerage and listings portal Redfin gives shape to just how choked up Greater Boston’s housing market is right now.

Only 9.84 homes in every 1,000 changed hands in the first half of 2023, the brokerage’s latest report found, or less than 1 percent.

“The quick increase in mortgage rates created an uphill battle for many Americans who want to buy a home by locking up inventory and making the homes that do hit the market too expensive. The typical home is selling for about 40 percent more than before the pandemic,” Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr said in a statement. “Mortgage rates dropping closer to 5 percent would make the biggest dent in the affordability crisis by freeing up some inventory and bringing monthly payments down. But there are a few other things that would boost turnover and help make homes more affordable. Building more housing is imperative, and federal and local governments can help by reforming zoning and making the building process easier. Financial incentives, like reducing transfer taxes for home sellers and subsidizing major moves with tax breaks, would also add to supply.”

Boston’s turnover rate in the first half of this year represents a 21.6 percent drop over where the turnover rate was in 2019 across the metro area, but the figure is even worse in Boston’s suburbs. There, the turnover rate among the biggest, family-sized houses with four or more bedrooms has fallen by 30.2 percent.

Those figures echo the June inventory shortfalls reported by the Greater Boston Association of Realtors. New single-family listings were down 38.9 percent while new condominium listings were down 31.1 percent year-over-year, respectively, in the region’s urban core, in MetroWest and the suburbs in between. That put new single-family listings at 1,267 and new condo listings at 1,148. Total single-family inventory was down 27.9 percent to 1,266 and total condo inventory was down 16.7 percent to 1,775.

“Demand has improved slowly, but steadily this spring, however sales activity remains suppressed by the fact that there are so few listings on the market,” 2023 GBAR President Alison Socha, an agent with Leading Edge Real Estate in Melrose, said in a statement. “Buyers have increasingly come to accept the reality of higher mortgage rates, but the reduced purchasing power they’re experiencing as a result of today’s elevated selling prices and financing costs, along with the small number of properties available to buy, has slowed the home search process, and dissuaded some from entering the market altogether.”

Statewide, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors reported Monday that new listings decreased in June by 33.2 percent for single-family homes and 28.7 percent for condominiums, both compared to June 2022. The overall number of single-family homes for sale was down 41.3 percent month-over-month to a mere 4,563 – nearly 10,000 less than the number for sale in June 2019 – while the total number of condos for sale fell 34.7 percent to 2,384, compared to 4,726 for sale in June 2019.

“Inventory continues to hamper any year-over-year growth, despite the monthly growth we have seen in sales,” David McCarthy, 2023 president of MAR and operating partner at Keller Williams Boston|Metro. “With many existing homeowners having favorable interest rates, there isn’t as much incentive to sell as there has been in prior years. New build projects in the state will hopefully provide some much-needed inventory.”

Nation-wide, Marr and his Redfin colleagues found that 14 in every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands in the first six months of this year, down 27.7 percent over the same period in 2022. While all types of properties, from urban studio condos to suburban and rural single-family homes with more than four bedrooms, saw double-digit declines in turnover rate the latter saw the biggest drop-off: 32.7 percent. The smallest change was the 16.3 percent decline in turnover rate among urban condos and townhouses with four or more bedrooms, to 15.4 per 1,000 existing units, while the highest turnover rate overall was seen in urban studio and one-bedroom condos, at 17.2 units per 1,000.

Less Than 1 Percent of Boston Homes Have Changed Hands This Year

by James Sanna time to read: 3 min
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