While Grubb & Ellis researchers predict that higher rental prices in Boston may be less than a year away, other industry experts believe that view is too optimistic.

While tenant power held strong this year, presiding over slipping rent prices and high vacancies, Grubb & Ellis’ Boston researchers predict that the trend won’t last and tenants will have their final, significant opportunity to lock in record-low rates over the next two quarters.

Some commercial real estate brokers say that landlords are already asking for higher rates, while others remain skeptical of any rent hike projections over the next one to two years.

Grubb & Ellis remains more optimistic than most.

“It won’t be immediate, but it will begin in 12 months,” said Chris Rogers, senior vice president at the company. “There’s a potential that we will see some increases.”

Hints of a recovering economy will boost landlord confidence, and tenants who squeezed in a lease deal effective as late as the end of 2005 will be paying rates significantly below the market at the time of occupancy, according to Grubb & Ellis.

‘Highly Unlikely’

Researchers say that the end of major military action in the war with Iraq has contributed to the stabilization of business conditions – a rosier picture that may mean the lift of hiring and spending freezes. That, in turn, means companies will be looking for space, said Brendan Carroll, research manager for Grubb & Ellis.

With market indicators on the upswing, some of the city’s markets are poised for recovery. Carroll said that Boston’s Back Bay, with a 12.1 percent vacancy, remains close to the 10 percent equilibrium benchmark – when tenants and landlords negotiate on equal footing. All the Back Bay needs is 270,000 square feet of positive absorption to bring the neighborhood to a 10 percent vacancy, not such an impossible feat considering that there are no new buildings under construction in that part of the Hub. Also, since Class A office buildings typically take three to four years to build, it will be at least 2006 before a new development would impact the market, according to Carroll.

“Currently landlords in the Back Bay are very protected from competition,” Carroll said. “It wouldn’t be overly aggressive to say that the Back Bay will become a very tight market.”

Rent rates in Wellesley, an attractive location because of its proximity to local executives’ homes, remains healthy at about $29 per square foot, Carroll said. Similarly, because of mid-Cambridge’s proximity to the much-desired Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, that market’s prestigious addresses continue attracting research institutions. The two universities’ plans for a $300 million biomedical research center also will boost the area.

Billerica, Burlington and Westborough, on the other hand, will take several years before they recover, Carroll said. He added, however, that companies in need of large amounts of space will find opportunities in those markets.

While industry watchers and landlords wait for a recovery, tenants are taking advantage of cheaper rates, moving into higher-class office space at comparable costs or moving into space marketed by vacancy-plagued landlords offering major signing incentives.

The first half of the year witnessed dozens of lease renewals in the Boston area, including Goulston & Storrs at 400 Atlantic Ave., RBC Dain Rauscher at One Beacon St. and Nixon Peabody, which Rogers said looked like a relocation but actually was a renewal with the same landlord. Even nonprofits are closing great deals, with several such groups moving into higher-grade office space at comparable prices.

“This can’t go on forever,” Rogers said.

But not everyone is banking on improvements over the next year. Some say that may be nothing more than wishful thinking.

Most industry watchers and brokers agree that rents have bottomed out. It’s when they will rise that’s a point of contention. While Grubb & Ellis believes that trend may begin in 12 months, others are more skeptical, hesitating to even venture a guess as to when a recovery will mend the market.

One industry expert says it will take longer to reach equilibrium levels than it did during the last downturn.

“The economy may be on the mend, but it will take time for the excess capacity and increases in economic productivity to decline to a point where companies need to hire workers and lease office space to increase profits,” said Robert Kasvinsky, vice president of business and strategic intelligence for Spaulding & Slye Colliers. “Then, and only then, will we get enough absorption to reach equilibrium levels for both landlords and tenants – for now, tenants are in control.”

Job growth within the next year just won’t be high enough to project company growth and the resulting office space needs, Kasvinsky said.

Don Hause, senior director at GVA Thompson Doyle Hennessey & Stevens, said he also doesn’t expect an increase for quite some time.

“Until there’s either growth or a great number of tenants in the market, it’s highly unlikely,” he said.