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A group of senior economists at Massachusetts’ largest universities, lenders, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and the FDIC have declared “a global recession is a virtual certainty” as the coronavirus pandemic forces the local and national economies to a screeching halt.

The editorial board of MassBenchmarks, a regional economics and policy journal published by the UMass Donahue Institute and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, made the declaration in a commentary published Tuesday.

The board is made up of some of the most prominent regional economists in New England.

“The large and costly disruption to global supply chains associated with the widening impact of the global pandemic presents an ongoing challenge for the Commonwealth’s sizable advanced manufacturing and high technology sectors,” the commentary states. “Should these conditions persist or worsen as expected, it will become increasingly difficult for many employers to maintain their payrolls which could lead to a significant reversal of fortune for the state labor market.”

The course the pandemic takes in New England will determine how long and how deep the resulting recession will be, the scholars stated. The challenge is especially great as the crisis hits the economy in both its supply chains and in consumer demand, they added.

“While there are important fiscal and social policies that will be critical to responding to what comes next, at this stage of the crisis the best policy advice will come from public health experts. We encourage our state and local leaders to give them the resources they need,” the statement continued.

To help keep the economy afloat during and after the pandemic, the board said the federal government should shy away from broad-based measures like a payroll tax cut and focus on more targeted measures, like universal paid sick time for workers, free and widely available COVID-19 tests, special loan funds for small- and medium-sized businesses to help bridge the virus-caused halt in the economy and planning for needed infrastructure projects that can help put people back to work once the virus abates.

Massachusetts has about $3.5 billion built up in its rainy day savings account, a cash stash that was built up in case the state ran into difficulties. Fiscal assistance from the federal government could also help states to deal with the coronavirus fight.

The State House News Service contributed reporting.

Mass. Economists: Global COVID-19 Recession ‘a Virtual Certainty’

by James Sanna time to read: 2 min
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