MassDOT photo
The MBTA’s proposed slimmed-down service menu for 2021 could cause indigestion for downtown Boston office landlords, discourage multifamily development near commuter rail stations and widen social inequities in accessing reliable transportation, real estate industry and economic development sources predict.
The agency’s recommended transit diet to save $142 million during a pandemic-induced decline in ridership calls for closure of six suburban commuter rail stations, elimination of weekend service and a 35 percent cut in overall commuter rail service. The MBTA Fiscal Control Board could reach a final decision as soon as December, with many of the changes taking effect in May.
“While the full impact of potential MBTA service cuts remains to be seen, it could be another setback in the city’s eventual return to normalcy and may create further uncertainty in the marketplace,” said Liz Berthelette, director of research for Newmark Knight Frank in Boston.
Downtown Boston office leasing has sputtered through three consecutive quarters of negative absorption, as companies hit pause on real estate decisions and offer mostly-unoccupied offices for sublease. Brokerage CBRE is tracking nearly 2.7 million square feet of available sublease space, including nearly 1 million added in the third quarter alone.
Commercial brokerage sources predict the declines in service frequency will add another layer of uncertainty for corporate decision-makers as they chart a return-to-work strategy. The widespread adoption of work-from-home policies – coupled with less-frequent train service, Boston’s notorious auto commutes and pricey parking rates – could reverse a decade-long trend in which companies have favored transit-friendly downtown offices over car-dependent suburban office parks.
Proposed MBTA Cuts
- 20 percent fewer subway trains
- Stop Green Line E branch at Brigham Circle
- 20 percent fewer buses on “non-essential” routes
- End 20 bus routes
- Eliminate ferries to Hull, Hingham and Charlestown
- No weekend commuter rail trains starting January 2021
- No weekday commuter rail trains after 9 p.m.
- Close six commuter rail stations
“If the train doesn’t run as frequently, all of a sudden that commute that was already the worst in the country gets worse,” said Aaron Jodka, managing director of research and client services at Colliers Boston. “And there’s not enough parking to offset that.”
Bus Ridership Remains Resilient
Commuter rail ridership is down 35 percent in the COVID era, compared with a 30 percent decrease in rapid transit ridership and 15 percent decline in bus ridership, according to materials presented to the Fiscal Control Board last week.
Six of the system’s 141 commuter rail stations are targeted for closure based upon low ridership: Plimptonville, Prides Crossing in Beverly, Silver Hill and Hastings in Weston, Plymouth and Cedar Park in Melrose. Overall commuter rail service would be cut to 65 percent of its pre-pandemic levels, with decreased train service at peak and midday hours, and an early weekday shutdown at 9 p.m. Weekend service would be terminated except on the Fairmount line, which would be replaced with buses.
Proposed cuts in MBTA commuter rail, subway and bus service could affect office leasing patterns in Greater Boston and the viability of development near suburban rail stations.
Weekend commuter rail boardings have averaged 14,000 during the pandemic, compared with 31,000 in 2019, according to MBTA data.
Current construction pipeline and leasing trends in Boston and Cambridge continue to favor transit-oriented sites, said Brendan Carroll, research director for Cushman & Wakefield in Boston.
“My assumption is this will not have any impact on the office or lab leasing environment, but I do believe there is an expectation for service levels to be adjusted and adapt when the transit-using customer base comes back,” Carroll said. “We would hope as ridership resumes, the MBTA has a plan to monitor ridership and quickly respond with increased levels of service. In the city of Boston, we don’t have the parking inventory as a percentage of square-footage that we used to.”
Equity Considerations Play a Role
MBTA officials say the plan is designed to reflect current ridership declines while minimizing effects upon vulnerable populations that rely most heavily on public transit. The Fairmount commuter rail line would be the only one still offering weekend service, with bus service replacing trains on the line which runs from South Station to Readville.
But a transit specialist said the cuts will inevitably harm low-income riders who have fewer alternatives to public transit for work and daily activities.
“They’re still cutting bus service across the board for people who depend on transit,” said Tracy Corley, transit-oriented development fellow at MassINC. “It’s like cutting off the electricity. Transit is essential to economic development and many aspects of socioeconomic life.”
The elimination of weekend service would disproportionately affect service industry workers who don’t work 9-to-5 schedules, Corley said.
The MassINC think tank has advocated for more mixed-use developments near Gateway Cities’ commuter rail stations to replace jobs lost to deindustrialization in recent decades, giving local residents local workplace alternatives to Boston commutes.
While the MBTA has not proposed any fare adjustments, Corley argued that the agency should slash ticket and pass prices by half on the commuter rail system to benefit lower-income riders.
Tamara Small, CEO of NAIOP Massachusetts, said the proposals strike a balance between providing essential service and spending the agency’s budget efficiently.
“These are difficult decisions. However, the T’s data driven approach is focused on ensuring that riders have access to public transit,” Small wrote in an email, noting that the plan would preserve transit access within a half-mile of 78.5 percent of riders in the MBTA service area, a 3.5 percent reduction.
Nonetheless, reduced frequencies on many commuter rail and bus routes could eat into transit’s appeal for potential riders.
Steve Adams
The state offers incentives for communities to approve transit-oriented multifamily development through its Chapter 40R smart growth law, and Winchester officials are reviewing six proposals from developers to build affordable housing on the town-owned Waterfield parking lot, a 1-acre site next to the Winchester Center commuter rail station.
The project was intended to coincide with a station renovation project scheduled to begin in early 2021. In public comments to the Fiscal Control Board, state Sen. Jason Lewis warned against “short-sighted” delays in planned capital projects including Winchester Center.
“That project is integrally linked to redevelopment of Winchester Center,” Lewis said. “Economic development and affordable housing is closely tied to this project moving forward.”
