Economists at combined listings portal and brokerage Redfin say Worcester’s housing market appears to be holding up better than Boston’s amid a range of stressors as the spring housing market opens.
The researchers created composite rankings of how fast housing markets in America’s 92 most populous metro areas were cooling based on year-over-year changes in prices, price drops, supply, pending sales, sale-to-list ratio and the share of homes that went off market in two weeks in February 2022 and February 2023.
Hartford, Connecticut led the nation with what the study deemed the nation’s strongest housing market: Pending sales down only 16.2 percent despite a 26.7 percent fall in inventory and 8 percent growth in the median price per square foot, plus flat-to-slight growth in the share of listings that went off-market in two weeks, the average sale-to-list price ratio and the share of homes with price drops.
Other metros in the top five: Milwaulkee, at No. 2, New Haven and Fairfield counties at third and fourth place, respectively, followed by Albany, New York.
Worcester took 22nd place – a 2 percent rise in median price per square foot and a 9 percent drop in the share of homes that went off-market within two weeks, a 2 percent drop in the average list-to-sale price ratio, plus a 12 percent drop in pending sales, a 10.9 percent fall in inventory. Redfin defines the Worcester market as covering Worcester County in Massachusetts and Tolland County in northeast Connecticut. Worcester was tied with New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Meanwhile, Greater Boston scored as the 36th-most robust market, with a similar 2 percent rise in the median price per square foot, but a 1 percent fall in the share of homes that went off-market in two weeks, a 20.5 percent fall in pending sales and a 3 percent drop in the average list-to-sale price ratio and a 3.5 percent increase in inventory. Redfin defines the Boston market as covering Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth and Suffolk counties. Boston was tied with Richmond, Virginia
The researchers speculate that because Connecticut’s economy is far less heavily reliant on the tech sector, neither that industry’s layoffs nor volatility in tech stocks are making buyers nervous.
The housing-market strength in areas like Connecticut and the Midwest contrasts to metro areas that were market darlings during the pandemic but have since been unable to sustain their booms. Many tech-driven housing markets appear to be suffering after pricing out non-tech workers, Redfin said.
Austin, Texas, has cooled the fastest over the past year, Redfin said, followed by Seattle, Phoenix and Tacoma, Washington, with Denver rounding out the five fastest-cooling regions. Inventory in Austin is up 140 percent year-over-year, and pending sales were down 40 percent, with just 16 percent of homes going under contract in two weeks, versus 38 percent in February 2022, and its median price-per-square-foot is down 13 percent, the biggest drop of any metro area researchers surveyed. The city is “a victim of its own popularity,” researchers wrote.
In many of these markets, Redfin agents told the company’s researchers, low inventory was helping to tamp down on demand even as well-priced properties in desirable areas continue to attract multiple offers.
