Commercial real estate sectors across the nation are part of a stabilization trend; however, most markets rent will remain soft except for multifamily rentals, according to a report from National Association of Realtors (NAR).

"Very limited construction of new commercial real estate over the past few years has essentially fixed the supply of available space," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "This means vacancy rates could fall quickly from any increase in demand for commercial space."

From the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, NAR expects vacancy rates to decline 0.5 percentage point in the office sector, 1.3 points in industrial real estate, 0.1 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market. Average apartment rent is projected to grow 3.4 percent this year and another 4.2 percent in 2012.

"Even with declining vacancy rates, rents are not likely to turn positive in most markets until next year, outside of multifamily rental properties," Yun said. "Apartment rent increases are expected to accelerate from job creation leading to new household formation, particularly among the young adult population who will seek their own housing arrangements – many will be leaving their parents’ homes, or choose to live with fewer roommates."

Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to decline from 16.5 percent in the first quarter of this year to 16 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 14.2 percent to 12.9 percent, and retail vacancy rates are expected to slip from 13 percent to 12.9 percent. Multifamily vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 5.8 percent to 4.9 percent, according to NAR.

 

Report: Commercial R.E. Nationwide Stabilizing

by Banker & Tradesman time to read: 1 min
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