The U.S. economy slowed in the spring, and most analysts expect it to weaken further in the months ahead. Yet the main driver of growth – consumer spending – remains vigorous enough to keep the economy growing steadily if still modestly.

Spending by households, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic growth, accelerated in the April-June quarter to its fastest pace in nearly five years. Eventually, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in imports could bring higher prices and lower consumer spending. But for now, household spending remains a vital pillar of the economy.

The nation’s gross domestic product – the broadest gauge of economic health – grew at a moderate 2 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That was down from a 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter, but it would have been much weaker without a burst of consumer demand.

Economists generally expect growth to slow to a 2 percent annual rate or less for the rest of the year. But most think consumer spending will be enough to offset headwinds ranging from a slowing global economy to growing uncertainties caused by Trump’s trade war with China.

In the April-June period, consumer spending shot up to an annual rate of 4.7 percent, the best showing since the final quarter of 2014. The surge followed two weak quarters for spending as car sales sank and households grew cautious after a stock market fall and a partial shutdown of the government.

The report comes as the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index fell 2.5 percent to 105.6 in July. The index has slipped 0.3 percent from a year ago as uncertainty has mounted about the health of the economy. With trade tensions and fears of a possible recession intensifying, a robust job market hasn’t been enough to strengthen sales.

Sales have also been hampered by the lack of available homes on the market, which has contributed to home prices climbing faster than incomes and pricing out some would-be buyers. The long-standing shortage of sales listings and persistently high prices have blunted the benefits of mortgage rates nearing all-time lows.

At the same time, business investment is weakening in the face of the uncertainties created by the taxes that Trump has imposed on numerous imports percent goods that many American businesses rely upon. Business investment spending turned negative in the second quarter, falling at a 0.6 percent annual rate, which many economists believe occurred because of the uncertainty among businesses resulting from Trump’s trade war.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, said he expects the trade war to begin to weigh on consumers in the second half of this year as some of Trump’s additional tariffs on Chinese products take effect Sunday and others on Dec. 15. In addition, higher tariffs on a separate group of Chinese products are to take effect Oct. 1.

Faucher said thinks growth is slowing to a 1.5 percent annual rate in the current July-September quarter and will dip to around a sluggish 1.3 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

“On the plus side, consumers remain in good shape … with solid job growth and good wage gains,” Faucher said. “But the higher tariffs are going to cause consumers to pull back for a time, especially on big-ticket items like cars and appliances.”

But by mid-2020, Faucher said, he expects spending to start accelerating as consumers become used to the higher tariffs. He said he thinks the strength from such spending will help avoid a recession.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he isn’t forecasting a recession in the next 18 months but said one can’t be ruled out in light of Trump’s trade war with China.

“If the president continues to ratchet up the rhetoric and his tariffs on China, it will continue to unnerve business people who are already being more cautious with their investment plans,” Zandi said. “The risks of going into a recession are high if the president keeps escalating his trade war.”