Is it a gobbler or a gold mine?

Nearly three years after the Evergreen solar debacle, MassDevelopment is swinging for the fences again at Devens, the former military base that is now the state’s largest and most important economic development park.

The state authority is touting a cavernous, newly opened – and for the moment completely empty – movie production complex.

New England Studios says it hopes to welcome its first movie or TV show early next year at its $41 million-plus studio at Devens. But, alas, the project opened its doors in sunny September and it is now frigid December, with nothing booked.

So in the spirit of the season, it’s only fair to ask whether this truly is the coming of the long-promised Hollywood East we have been hearing about for years now, or instead another Evergreen-style turkey?

For those with short memories that’s the solar panel maker that bailed for China a few years ago, having pocketed tens of millions in tax breaks from the state authority that oversees Devens.

Right now, the jury’s out on this one. That said, there is reason to hope that despite the early bumps, things will work out.

“It will be the second shot heard around the world from MassDevelopment,” insists George Ramirez, executive vice president of operations for Devens.

Apparently, the first shot was the deal a decade ago that enticed drug maker Bristol Myers Squibb into building its giant Devens plant.

Now to give credit where credit is due, MassDevelopment, the state authority that oversees Devens, has gained back all the jobs lost during the Evergreen meltdown, and then some.

When Evergreen cashed out and shut down its Devens plant, it took 800 jobs with it, making it the little sister to the even bigger Solyndra meltdown that caused so much embarrassment for the Obama Administration.

But total employment at Devens is now back to 3,600, just a shade over what it was before Evergreen left and up from 3,200 last year.

Bristol Myers Squibb this spring announced plans for a $250 million expansion, while Nypro, the health care supplies manufacturer, recently inked an lease deal for half of the former 448,000-square-foot Evergreen plant.

However, MassDevelopment is now going for broke again with another high-profile Devens project. And, given the Evergreen disaster, it would be foolish not to employ a little healthy skepticism.

After all, there are some disturbing similarities.

For its part, Evergreen was the poster child for Gov. Deval Patrick’s campaign to make Massachusetts a big player in the emerging green economy.

And Devens was to be the stage for this explosive green job growth, with Evergreen promising to add hundreds of new jobs and charming everyone with its phenomenal growth plans.

Once again, MassDevelopment executives are at it again, talking up the possibility of explosive growth, touting the potential for hundreds of jobs, this time in the movie and film business.

Easy Money?

Then there are those pesky tax breaks.

Evergreen got much more than moral support from MassDevelopment and Devens, gobbling up, so to speak, tens of millions in low-cost financing and tax breaks to help fuel its expansion.

Evergreen later wound up having to repay state officials when it made a run for the border.

Undaunted, MassDevelopment has inked an agreement to dole out millions in real estate tax breaks to New England Studios.

Yet in the end, the differences between the two projects may wind up being more important than the similarities.

Evergreen was a risky bet on a manufacturing business, one that was highly vulnerable to undercutting by ruthless Chinese competitors with all sorts of state support. The hype over the prospect of green jobs clearly clouded the judgment of both MassDevelopment and the Patrick Administration over what, in the end, was just another factory, albeit one that built solar panels rather than cars.

By contrast, Massachusetts is already successfully competing in the movie and film business, with generous state credits and a solid, back-stage workforce helping make the Bay State a favorite backdrop for Hollywood producers.

The studio complex stems logically from this now years-long movie boom in Massachusetts, with the aim of making it easier for producers to do everything here and not have to fly back to LA or New York.

It’s cashing in on an existing business, not trying to start a new one.

Moreover, it’s not just starry-eyed state bureaucrats, obsessed with “green jobs,” who are seeing the big payroll potential in the rollout of New England Studios.

Local business people are also gearing up, with local caterer Steve Catalano moving ahead with plans to open a new kitchen at Devens that will serve hundreds of meals a day to the actors and crew working at the studios.

That’s the kind of endorsement that actually means something.

And as to the tax breaks?

While Evergreen cleaned up to the tune of more than $58 million in various state and local tax breaks, New England Studios has the option of shaving $5 million off its local payments over the next 20 years.

And so far, the Devens movie complex has yet to apply for breaks.

Finally, the fledgling studio complex has a monopoly right now in Massachusetts.

That’s in no small part due to local film industry veteran Chris Byers and local real estate developer Mike Meyers, who stuck with a relatively modest and doable plan, even as others claiming to be Hollywood veterans of one sort or another rolled out fanciful proposals, like the preposterous $500 million Plymouth Rock studio plan.

Don’t get me wrong, though. That hardly means it’s all smooth sailing ahead for the newly minted Devens studio project. Far from it.

If the slow launch is any indication, it may take months for New England Studios to gain momentum and start reeling in shows.

The new studio complex is the entertainment world’s version of a speculative office tower, raised into place under the time-worn and frankly always-risky premise that if you build it, they will come.

Nor is it a business for the faint of heart. Today’s big Hollywood moguls and studios stop and start on a dime, killing a project after seven months of planning or launching another one with a phone call.

“They may not know until three months before the shooting whether the production is real or not,” said veteran producer Todd Arnow, who has credits like “The Perfect Storm” and “Master and Commander” to his name.

But when the big boys decide to go all out, it can mean a windfall for a range of local businesses and service vendors.

And if you are the lucky guy with the only movie production complex in Massachusetts, that’s pay dirt, my friend.

So here’s hoping for a happy Hollywood ending to this not so little development drama – for a gold mine, not another Devens gobbler.

Scott Van Voorhis can be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com.