Last year at this time I predicted 2011 would be “the year of the big rebound.” So much for bold predictions.
Instead, 2011 turned into another “we survived” year full of hapless Congressional brinksmanship, Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street insanity, and fears the economy would slide back into recession.
But as we head into 2012, the economy – especially here in the Bay State – is slowly but surely moving into growth mode.
It’s no boom out there, but hiring is picking up, home prices are starting to stabilize, and we are looking at a pretty sizeable wave of apartment construction headed our way as well.
Challenges remain, with the possibility of a Eurozone meltdown particularly disconcerting.
But at the very least, 2012 is shaping up to be another year of forward progress, even if it is likely to be another one of those two-steps- forward-and-one-back years that we have seen so much of lately.
Here’s my list of the biggest stories, locally and nationally, to keep an eye on – or, in some cases, to blissfully ignore.
Casino gambling meets local politics: After years of debate, Las Vegas-style wagering, as least in theory, is finally legal here in Massachusetts. But getting something built in Massachusetts as large and as contentious as a casino is going to be no walk in the park, no matter how many billions various and sundry Las Vegas moguls have stashed away in the bank. Look for Robert Kraft and Steve Wynn to drop their casino plans after failing to win over Foxborough voters, leaving Caesars-based Suffolk Downs with the lucrative Eastern Massachusetts casino license.
Home sales and prices stabilize: At least here in Massachusetts, it looks like the double-dip in prices and sales is finally over. The last few months heading into 2012 have seen sales steadily pick up across the state and prices begin to slowly firm up. Meanwhile, in elite markets like Cambridge, Weston and Sherborn, prices will just keep rising.
Apartment construction soars – but so do rents: Developers are rushing out there to build new apartments, both in Downtown Boston and in the suburbs. But it won’t be enough to keep up with years of pent up demand, which will drive double digit rent increases in 2012.
The office market revives as the jobless rate falls: At 7 percent, the Massachusetts unemployment rate is well below the national average of 8.6 percent. Look for our local rate to fall below 7 percent and possibly all the way down to 6 percent, a tightening of the labor market that could drive office rents and soak up empty space. New construction should pick up, especially for lab and retail projects, along the Cambridge/128 corridor.
More big power outages: Better start praying hard for a mild winter. The disastrously slow response by the region’s top power companies left hundreds of thousands of homeowners and businesses without power for a week this fall. Twice.
There’s a crisis brewing here – years of neglected maintenance combined with a growing bean-counter culture at the top of our local utilities – that doesn’t bode well for keeping the lights on during stormy weather. And while the utilities are clearly starting to feel the sting of public outrage, it may take another round of epic outages in 2012 for this situation to hit bottom.
The presidential election comes and goes. And the economy shrugs: Yes, politicians and policy makers do have an impact on the economy – look at the near disaster that happened this summer with the showdown over the national debt. And on the other end of the spectrum, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown he’s got a steady hand, which has been enough so far to keep another Depression at bay.
But count me as a skeptic on pledges by presidents and presidential candidates to light a fire under the economy. The idea that a Republican president is going to usher in some boom is about as a foolish as the half-baked fear that President Barack Obama is about to unveil some sort of grand socialist takeover. Don’t get me wrong, the 2012 presidential campaign should be great theater – but I wouldn’t be making any major business plans one way or another based on the outcome. And ditto for that other big race, Scott Brown versus Elizabeth Warren. Fun to watch, but don’t bet the house on it.





