There is a comfortable certainty to the past. We live today with certain knowledge of what we did and with whom we spoke yesterday. What happened, happened, and there is comfort in knowing it cannot be changed.
But what is less certain is our lack of knowledge about how what has already happened may affect what is yet to come.
Because while the past is a comfortable certainty, the future is, by its nature, uncertain, and un-knowable.
Which makes attempts at predicting the future that much more bold. Diving into the depths of the unknown and trying to shed light on that which has not happened, which may never happen, almost always ensures that the predictor will be spectacularly wrong.
And yet there is value in the effort, at least, if not the results. The value of setting goals, often years in advance, with absolutely no knowledge if they’re even attainable, is demonstrated in boardrooms and corner offices across the Commonwealth and the country daily.
Looking into the darkness provides us with a roadmap of sorts for what’s to come, a trail to follow through the uncertainty. It can provide a light at the end of the tunnel, even if the tunnel itself remains dark and mysterious.
“What if?” is the historian’s favorite secret question. But the “what ifs?” of the past are indisputably grounded in the facts of history. One cannot reasonably ask something like “What if Bear Stearns didn’t collapse?” without immediately realizing that, indeed, it did collapse, and no amount of conjecture can change it.
But the “what ifs” of the future are an inherently, and wondrously, different animal altogether. Simply by asking “what if?” we can change our entire day, month or year.
“What if I give this loan to this entrepreneur? What if I don’t?”
So ask the question we must, and ask it we have.
Late in 2009, we asked you, our readers, to answer what was essentially a series of “what if?” questions about 2010.
“What if lending picks up? Who will reap the benefits?”
“What happens if the government stops supporting the housing market?” (Remember, in the future, there are no certainties. A lot can happen between now and April 30.)
“What, if any, high-profile projects will get back on track?”
Presented with a series of “What ifs,” you answered them, boldly and without pause.
And so here we present you your own predictions and prophecies. Some are surprising (70 percent of bankers say they think REO property will be liquidated in 2010, eh? What do they know that we don’t?), some optimistic, some downright gloomy.
But all of them are bold, and simply by asking the question, and having it answered, we’ve set a course for the coming year. If a majority of bankers say it’s likely they’ll lend to small businesses this year, then it seems logical a majority of bankers will take steps to fulfill their own prophecy.
We said earlier that in making such bold predictions, there’s a better chance you’ll be wrong than right. Maybe banks won’t lend to small businesses at their desired rate. Maybe single-family home sales won’t continue their slow rebound.
And maybe the commercial market will turn around drastically. Maybe more jobs, not less, will come on line as loans start filtering back into the economy.
Either way, being wrong is nothing to be ashamed of. The real triumph is the bravery it takes to look into the dark of the future and try to answer even a handful of the millions of “what ifs?” we’ll face in the coming months.
The beauty of the New Year is the opportunity it gives us to cast light into an un-illuminated future, not to look back on a dreary past we cannot change.
We look forward to doing our part to shed some light on all of our futures in the coming year. And we look forward to having you along for the journey.
