Completed early this month by Skanska USA Civil Northeast and D.W. White Construction, phase one of the MBTA’s South Coast Rail Corridor project included 12 miles of new track and new stations in Freetown (pictured) and Fall River. Photo courtesy of Skanska USA Civil Northeast

The opening this month of a long-awaited extension of the MBTA Green Line into Medford arrives at a time when the transit agency is also pursuing a commuter rail extension to Fall River and New Bedford.  

The two projects promise one-seat rides into the jobs hub of urban Boston, but these connections are very different in terms of housing impacts. While the Green Line Extension sent rents soaring and housing production up in neighborhoods along its path like Union Square in Somerville, don’t count on a significant housing pop along the commuter rail extension. 

For those in its path, it’s yet another case of hoping for opportunity to finally strike in the Gateway Cities. 

“Developers have always told us commuter rail is more of an amenity. It’s not an underlying value of real estate,” said Ben Forman, a research director at think tank MassINC. “It’s partially because of the [infrequency] of service, but it’s also the ridiculously expensive service. It [would cost approximately] $400 a month for a T pass from Fall River. If you’re using it as a regular commuter, you could just pay more rent and save the $400. So, it’s not a dramatic improvement from a quality-of-life perspective.” 

Phase one of the project is scheduled to begin service in late 2023, following this month’s completion of Freetown and Fall River commuter rail stations. The project will also include stops in East Taunton, Middleborough and two stations in New Bedford. 

Soaring Rents in Somerville 

Rents in Somerville’s Union Square, home to one of the two new termini for the Green Line, soared even before the station opened, as landlords banked on their neighborhood becoming a greater hotspot thanks to its eventual improved transit connectivity to downtown Boston. 

While there has been a slight cooldown on overall month-to-month rent growth in Greater Boston – part of a broader national trend some tie to seasonality of the rental market – there are still signs the Green Line Extension is fueling pricing power in the rental market. 

Medford rents declined 1.3 percent in November from the prior month, but prices are still up roughly 5 percent from a year ago, according to data from Apartment List. That’s similar to the annual rent growth seen in other cities with Green Line stations, such as Cambridge and Boston. 

Rent data from Zumper shows rents are also up 5 percent in Fall River, but there’s a key difference: The South Coast city isn’t seeing anywhere close to levels of housing development like what’s happening along the Green Line Extension. 

“The Green Line [E]xtension has driven a wave of speculative transit-oriented development around the new T stations,” Andrew Rybczynski, a Boston-based principal consultant at commercial real estate researchers CoStar said in an email.  

Experts say South Coast Rail will operate so infrequently, and will be so expensive to ride, that few developers will have an incentive to build speculative housing developments near its far-flung stations.

Transit-oriented development was popular over the last real estate cycle, but it surged along the Green Line Extension following its announcement. Since the beginning of 2017, the number of residential units within a half-mile of new Green Line Extension stations increased by 56 percent, more than double the 27 percent increase in units within a half-mile of all other T stations, Rybczynski said.  

“By comparison, the overall increase in Boston apartment units was 24 percent over the same time frame, indicating that developers moved fast to secure [transit-oriented development] sites near the eventual [Green Line Extension],” he added. 

Infrequent Service a Barrier to Growth 

It doesn’t appear the South Coast is attracting large-scale speculative development yet. The Green Line is part of the MBTA’s core subway network, with trains arriving every few minutes whereas many commuter rail stations have service on an hourly basis or longer. 

“While infill stations at Boston Landing and Assembly and the Green Line Extension serves urban footprints close to the regional core, the South Coast Rail project will likely drive bedroom community-type development,” said Brendan Carroll, president of Respoke LLC, a Boston real estate and transportation consulting firm. “The acceptance of it may be correlated to line speed and timetable frequency.” 

The Massachusetts Department of Transportation notes on its website that off-peak service for South Coast Rail will include gaps between trains of three to three-and-a-half hours. 

For the South Coast to get a crack at economic revitalization to its Gateway Cities and to see a flood of new housing ride alongside higher rents, it’s likely going to take modernization of the commuter rail with electrified trains and more frequent service, housing analysts say. 

“If we treat it like a second-class citizen, I think it’s going to get used like a second-class service,” Forman said. “Trying to make a real go at transit-oriented development makes sense, but we’ve got a long way to go before I see that strategy.”