The median Boston mortgage payment could increase by almost $200 by this time next year as the Federal Reserve continues to wind down its bond buying program, according to a new set of predictions from real estate portal Zillow.

In a post on its blog, Zillow calculated the effect of a predicted 1 percent increase in interest rates by this time next year on the median mortgage payment for cities across the country, taking into account projected increases in home values. For a median-priced home in the Boston area, a 1 percent bump in the interest rate would push monthly payments up $198 dollars.

That puts Boston in the middle of the pack for the 35 major metropolitan areas for which Zillow make projections, with San Jose, Calif., where a 1 percent bump would increase payments by $710, topping the rankings. The smallest change was in St. Louis. Mo., where a 1 percent bump in interest rates would increase payments on a median-priced home by $65.

"More often than not, buyers do not understand the profound effect of rising interest rates on affordability," said Erin Lantz, vice president of mortgages at Zillow, in a post on the company’s blog. "Many buyers associate a 1 percentage point interest rate change with a 1 percent change on a piece of clothing or the price of a car, when in fact they are very different." When it comes to mortgages, Lantz said, a 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates reduces affordability by approximately 10 percent.