There’s really no other way to put it: Mohegan Sun blew it with its fumbling pursuit of the prized casino license for Western Massachusetts, and now looks just about done as a serious contender.

Mohegan took an early and seemingly imposing lead in the casino sweepstakes, rolling out plans for a mega casino near the Connecticut border in Palmer four years ago.

But Mohegan hesitated at key moments when it should have poured it on, with the decision to put off paying a $400,000 application fee to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission looking like the last act.

All roads now lead to Springfield in the competition for the western license, with MGM looking like the new front-runner amid a pack of casino companies looking to build in the commonwealth’s third-largest city.

If MGM does come away with the top prize – and its $800 million proposal for a downtown Springfield casino appears to have the right local backers – it will be a double blow for Mohegan.

Stumbling Blocks

MGM is not only one of the biggest casino companies in Las Vegas, it is also a business partner of Mohegan Sun’s Connecticut archrival, having rolled out the MGM Grand casino tower at Foxwoods back in 2008.

To add insult to injury, Foxwoods and MGM have been relative latecomers to the Massachusetts casino sweepstakes, unable to gain a local foothold. Until now, that is.

Both Mohegan and Foxwoods face the same threat. The tribal gambling resorts draw more customers from Massachusetts than any other state, and could lose up to 30 percent of their business when the Bay State’s resort casinos finally open their doors.

But while Foxwoods dithered, Mohegan appeared to do all the right things, spending years building support for a Massachusetts casino in hopes of blunting a massive competitive threat.

Mohegan rolled out plans for a billion-dollar casino in hard-hit Palmer as far back as 2008, and later followed it up by opening a storefront office in the center of town.

Casino executives spent big money on Statehouse lobbyists, and even lavished time and attention wooing Palmer officials, whose blessing is critical.

Mohegan looked like it had the lock on a Western Massachusetts casino.

But then business started to go sour at Mohegan’s Connecticut flagship, with the Great Recession marking the start of what has become a years-long slide in slot revenue.

Mohegan also found itself suddenly struggling to refinance hundreds of millions of dollars in debt.

Suddenly, the once invincible tribal casino looked vulnerable, and the timing couldn’t have been worse, with Massachusetts finally getting serious about legalizing expanded gambling.

Tongues began wagging among rivals and others about whether Mohegan still had the kind of financial firepower needed to back up its Massachusetts plans.

But instead of doubling down, Mohegan began scaling back, cutting its plans back to $875 million in 2010 and later down to $600 million.

By the time Massachusetts lawmakers got around to legalizing casinos late last year, rival casino developers were already scouting out sites in Western Massachusetts, ready to challenge a seemingly weakened Mohegan.

It was in stark contrast to the competition for the Boston-area casino license, where Suffolk Downs got off to an early lead and never looked back, bringing on Las Vegas giant Caesars Entertainment to strengthen its already formidable bid.

After a clumsy challenge by Steve Wynn collapsed under the weight of its own hubris, Suffolk has emerged as the sole bidder to build a casino in Eastern Massachusetts.

Final Act?

Now, after another round of mishaps and miscalculations, Mohegan’s status as a serious contender for the western license is suddenly in doubt.

In a major blow, Paul Picknelly, head of Springfield’s Peter Pan bus company and one of the region’s top business leaders, recently pulled out as an investor in Mohegan’s planned Palmer casino.

He has since reappeared in Springfield, teaming up with MGM on a blockbuster, $800 million casino proposal that would take shape near the Basketball Hall of Fame.

Mohegan then followed up that setback with a fairly foolish public relations error, opting to put off payment of a $400,000 application fee to state casino regulators.

The fee, put forth by state gaming czar Steve Crosby, was designed to help sort out the tire kickers from the real competitors, who, in exchange, get access to a range of state officials to help craft their proposals.

And some casino developers have responded, using the payments to help burnish their reputations as serious players.

Suffolk Downs promptly wrote a check, as did Plainridge Racecourse, which hopes to set up a slot parlor in Plainville on the Rhode Island border.

But Mohegan skipped the check and simply sent a long-winded press statement saying it would pay sometime down the line after it submitted its initial application. The move raised eyebrows and created a big fat opening for MGM, which presented the state gaming commission last week with a check for $400,000.

Whether MGM can capitalize on its momentum and snag the western license remains to be seen, but Springfield, not Palmer, looks like the winning destination. And MGM , not Mohegan, appears the best-positioned of the crop of contenders vying to build in the city.

In fact, MGM and Peter Picknelly have an amazing three contenders to deal with in Springfield, including a casino proposal being put together by hotelier Paul Picknelly, Peter’s brother.

Now how’s that for sibling rivalry?

MGM’s plan, however, seems to have a clearer line into the mayor’s office – which, as these things go, could prove crucial.

We’ll just have to wait and see. But the western casino license is no longer Mohegan’s to lose, but rather MGM’s, and that’s quite a turn of events.