Gov. Deval Patrick, I have some news for you: Not everyone wants to live next to a train station.
Our ever-amiable governor says he’s worried about young professionals bolting the state for cheaper housing markets. So, six years into his tenure, he’s belatedly rolled a plan out to spur more condo and apartment construction in our housing-starved state.
Yet despite some new spin about “compact neighborhoods,” it looks like another trendy, go-along-to-get-along effort so typical of Patrick, modest in scope and destined to fall short.
The core of the plan is spurring developers to build new apartment and condo complexes near train stations and office parks, as well as in town and city centers, with a goal of creating 10,000 new units a year over the next 10 years.
Are there really that many young, urban hipsters yearning to blow a few hundred thousand dollars on a condo next to a train station or a trendily converted factory flat? Sounds like a stretch.
Even so, it may be only half of the new housing construction that will be needed each year over the coming decade, especially with the Greater Boston economy kicking into high gear, attracting highly paid professionals from around the county and the world.
Bigger Vision Needed
For starters, while Patrick has pitched his new housing plan as some grand solution, it is actually a very narrow, cautious and, frankly, incremental proposal.
In fact, if it looks like reheated, three-day leftovers, that’s because it is, offering simply another variation of the longstanding 40R program that has been in place for years.
But more seriously, it is way out of synch with housing market demand. There is voracious demand out there for all types of housing, not just train-station and town-center flats and condos. In fact, out in the suburbs, the four-bedroom colonial is still king, yet far too few new homes are being built to fill demand.
You see, we are now in the third decade of a housing drought. Housing construction has fallen steadily since the 1980s – the last time we saw lots of new suburban subdivisions.
More than 331,000 new homes and condos were built across Massachusetts during the 1980s. That number fell by half in the 1990s, and then all but tumbled off a cliff in the 2000s.
Since the Great Recession, we’ve added just a few thousand new rentals, homes and condos a year.
The result has been a structural mismatch between supply and demand. It has left the buyers with the most bucks to bid up the few new homes being built, with the rest of the market stuck settling for cramped 1950s capes or run-down village colonials.
We are increasingly prone to rapid run-ups in housing values, with the surge in prices that peaked back in 2006 likely only a dress rehearsal for the next bubble.
The warning signs are already there – anemic construction, falling inventory and rising demand that saw pending sales of single-family homes rise 36 percent across Massachusetts in October.
It may not happen this year or next, but it surely will again on our current course.
But Patrick’s plan does nothing to bring back construction of traditional subdivisions. That’s just not part of his game plan.
Tiptoeing Around The Problem
Clearly, a more balanced approach is needed – we are not going to solve our state’s increasingly dire housing problems building condo developments next to train stations, industrial parks and office buildings.
The numbers just don’t add up. Patrick wants to solve our housing needs with 10,000 multifamily housing units a year across the state.
The Boston area alone needs 12,000 new units of housing a year, from homes to condos and apartments, to keep pace with current trends, a new report by the Boston Foundation finds. Once the economy picks up, we could be talking 19,000 a year.
Yet to take a more balanced approach – and push for more traditional suburban housing – Patrick would have to butt heads with some powerful players and backers.
First off, there are the local NIMBYs, from town officials to fat and happy homeowners, who, sadly, view all things through the narrow lens of school costs. Many would ban all new housing if they could get away with it.
Faced with having to leave a crack in the door, the next best thing for town and suburbs allergic to new housing is agreeing to a condo or apartment complex shoved into some undesirable part of town. With units designed for singles and young couples and no yards to speak off, there’s little danger of families moving in.
Then there are the greenheads and sprawl-busters, intent on saving the planet, one less wasteful suburban housing tract at a time. They are also a core constituency for Patrick and the Democratic Party.
Patrick needs to get tough with both groups. But after six years, it’s pretty clear our go-along, get-along governor, who spent years on various corporate boards, does not have it in him to butt heads, especially with supporters.
The screwed-up Massachusetts housing market needs a sheriff right now to straighten things out, not a back-slapper.
Scott Van Voorhis can be reached at sbvanvoorhis@hotmail.com.
